OK, this is the poll I’ve been waiting for. Mind you, SUSA is wildly off sometimes just like any other pollster. But this one helps peg where the trend is, and lends validity to the earlier CNN poll.

SurveyUSA: Texas 2/16-2/18, MOE +/-3.9%
Clinton: 50%
Obama: 45%
Undecided: 2%

There is “give” in these numbers that must be mentioned in the same breath. Among Hispanic voters, Clinton leads 2:1. SurveyUSA estimates that Hispanics make-up 32% of Democratic primary voters in a Primary today. If Hispanics vote in larger numbers, Clinton’s lead is larger than the 5 points shown here. If Hispanics vote in smaller numbers, Obama runs stronger than these numbers show. Among white voters, Clinton leads by 12. Among black voters, Obama leads by 57. Race Gap is 69 points. Among males, Obama leads by 20. Among females, Clinton leads by 27. Gender Gap is 47 points. Among registered Democrats, Clinton up 14. Among Independents, Obama up 28. Among voters under age 50, Obama by 6. Among Voters 50+, Clinton by 17. Age Gap is 23 points. Clinton ahead in South Texas and West Texas. Obama and Clinton within the margin of sampling error in North Texas, East Texas, and Central Texas.

New Age Grouping Unveiled: In this poll, SurveyUSA unveils for the first time a new way of looking at candidate preference. Voters are divided into three groups: 1) Younger than Obama. 2) Older than McCain. 3) In Between (hereafter, “In-Betweeners.”) Among voters younger than Obama, Obama leads by 6. Among voters older than McCain, Clinton leads by 45. Among In-Betweeners, Clinton leads by 8. Note that in Texas, according to SurveyUSA’s turnout model today, 47% of Democratic Primary voters are younger than Obama. 11% of voters are older than McCain. 43% of voters are In Between.

This looks to be generally in line with our prior projections. In other words, this would probably yield Clinton a slim margin in the precinct primaries but Obama would make up for it in the caucuses and come out with more delegates. This places the CNN, Hamilton, and InsiderAdvantage polls within the margin of error, and ARG and Rasmussen as outliers on either side.