02.25.08
Latest Texas Polls – UPDATE: Obama 49, Clinton 45 (SUSA)
Here’s a review of recent polling in Texas:
Latest Texas Democratic primary polls:
| Pollster | Date | Obama | Clinton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen | 2/24 | 45 | 46 |
| CNN | 2/22-2/24 | 50 | 46 |
| ARG | 2/23-2/24 | 50 | 42 |
| ABC/WaPo | 2/16-2/20 | 47 | 48 |
| Rasmussen | 2/20 | 44 | 47 |
| IVR | 2/20 | 45 | 50 |
| Constituent Dynamics | 2/17-2/19 | 45 | 46 |
| SUSA | 2/16-2/18 | 45 | 50 |
You can find this info, along with MattTX’s delegate projections for Texas, on our brand new Texas page from the sidebar. As for my analysis, I try not to take ARG and CNN polls too seriously, as they have a pretty spotty record. However, is seems indisputable that this race is much, much closer than Clinton wanted it to be. If she doesn’t even win the popular vote here, her candidacy will look like a sinking ship.
UPDATE: New SUSA Poll has Obama up by 4 in Texas!
SUSA: Texas 2/23-2/25, MOE +/-3.8%
Obama: 49%
Clinton: 45%
Undecided: 3%
Among Hispanic voters, Clinton led by 33 points last week, leads by 13 points today. Among women, Clinton had led by 27, now by 11. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, Obama had led by 6, now by 22. In North Texas (which includes Dallas and Fort Worth), Clinton had led by 2, now trails by 19. In East Texas (which includes Houston), Obama had led by 5, now leads by 18. Among registered Democrats, Clinton had led by 14, now by 2. Among voters focused on the Economy, Clinton had led by 5, now trails by 11. Among those who attend religious services regularly, Clinton had led by 7, now trails by 15. Among Pro-Life voters, Clinton had led by 1, now trails by 14. Among seniors, Liberals, voters in Central Texas, South Texas and West Texas, Clinton’s support is holding.
Holy crap! Maybe that CNN poll is accurate after all! Can you believe it? If Obama wins the popular vote in Texas and pulls a 10 delegate or more lead via the caucus, Hillary’s campaign will look like a sinking ship. This is huge.
anon said,
February 25, 2008 at 11:52 pm
The SUSA poll released today (2/23-2/25) has Obama 49, Clinton 45.
xstryker said,
February 26, 2008 at 12:00 am
Just saw that, just added it in. Huge poll!
Elliot said,
February 26, 2008 at 12:52 am
Stryker, Kos thinks that Obama will win Texas by double-digits.
xstryker said,
February 26, 2008 at 1:39 am
Well, at the rate things are moving, ARG’s going to be looking pretty darn accurate, to my chagrin (and also delight). But MattTX has already predicted an 11 delegate lead for Obama, so in terms of the numbers that matter, we’ve had him up by double digits since Friday.
Elliot said,
February 26, 2008 at 1:51 am
Of course, if Obama wins the Texas popular vote by double digits, that should probably move Matt’s delegate number up quite a bit, don’t you think?
xstryker said,
February 26, 2008 at 7:55 am
Well, he does have a best case scenario in there, too.