Comments on: Debunking myths

By: glhf

glhf — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 04:37:26 +0000

Actually Obama now leads North Carloina by 21 points and trials PA by 10 points. If things remains around that then we’re back at square one…again. I expect PA’s trial to go down though…my brother’s from there and says few people went to her rallies claiming that “people aren’t interested in Hillary and McCain…Obama perhaps.” He happens to be a republican who proudly voted for Bush both times so that surprised me.

By: Jim

Jim — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 04:05:24 +0000

Thank God Obama has arrived at this time in our history.

Are the American people educated and open-minded enough to recognize him as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to correct our nation’s course?

I hope so…

In Obama We Trust!

By: Correction to Debunking Myths « Election Inspection

Correction to Debunking Myths « Election Inspection — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 02:25:31 +0000

[...] superdelegates at 9:11 pm by Elliot A little bit ago, I commented on Hillary Clinton’s myth debunking myth. Well, I forgot to include all of the superdelegates Clinton has from Washington D.C. (which Obama [...]

By: Debunking Myths II « Election Inspection

Debunking Myths II « Election Inspection — Wed, 26 Mar 2008 19:21:29 +0000

[...] fairy tale, Hillary Clinton, open left at 2:21 pm by Elliot Chris Bowers seems to agree with my previous analysis Myth: The Pledged delegate count is close Fact: Obama leads pledged delegates by 6.0% with only [...]

By: Elliot

Elliot — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 05:38:28 +0000

I doubt it, especially since I don’t think Edwards has any more sway in North Carolina than Ted Kennedy, Deval Patrick, and John Kerry had in Massachusetts.

By: xstryker

xstryker — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 05:16:33 +0000

I’ll leave one caveat there – supposedly Edwards isn’t going to endorse anyone, but if he endorses Clinton, it could hurt Obama with the young white vote.

By: Elliot

Elliot — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 04:42:58 +0000

Like I said in my critique of Jerome Armstrong, that PPP poll is almost certainly an outlier, and even if it isn’t, taking a look at all states with a relatively high AA vote (Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Virginia, Maryland, South Carolina) Obama has outperformed his polls, usually by a significant margin. Plus, Obama’s ground game there is far superior to Clinton’s. North Carolina is to Obama what Pennsylvania is to Clinton.

By: latina for obama

latina for obama — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 04:37:10 +0000

Great news Elliot. The Obama crew seem to me to very much on the ball in terms of the importance of having boots on the ground. Good to be hanging it up for the day on a positive note.

Not knowing as much as I should about the American system–ask me about Latin America, I would probably have an answer, about the US I am still not as learned as I could/want to be–it seems to me that with Clinton is both strategy/philosophy (her group does not really embrace the 50 state idea) and also, at this point, a lack of $$$ to actually be able to compete fully in all the states if they wanted to.

Last query of the night–the poll numbers in NC will surely go up now no, since the last poll was taken at the height of the Wright controversy? Even if that does not really affect the delegate count you gave (which I assume took all the relevant variables into account).

By: Elliot

Elliot — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 04:26:07 +0000

Yeah, and it sounds like Obama’s people will be opening field offices in Indiana within the week, while Clinton’s organization is nowhere to be found.

On top of that, I hear that Obama’s already getting some organization set up in Oregon, Kentucky, and West Virginia as well (I don’t know about formal field offices, but I hear they have some paid staff there already). Even though the fundamentals of Kentucky and West Virginia heavily favor Clinton, I think that Obama can stop Clinton from racking up any significant delegates from either state.

By: latina for obama

latina for obama — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 04:13:53 +0000

thanks so much Elliot. Being a data/empirically driven sort of gal this stuff allows me to obsess on the election semi-productively.

I read somewhere that the ground game from Texas (in place until the State Convention on the 29th) is moving to Indiana which is good too no?