Latest Pennsylvania primary polls:

Today’s new poll from InsiderAdvantage puts Clinton’s lead at a miniscule 2 points. If you factor in that the poll shows Obama winning only 55% of black voters, the news is even worse for Clinton, because Obama is likely to win over 80% of blacks based on every previous contest thus far. Like yesterday’s PPP outlier, this is just one poll and it could be way off. However, if you look only at polls taken Monday and later (avoiding the notorious “weekend poll” effect), the pattern becomes clear:

3/31: Rasmussen – Clinton by 5
3/31-4/1: PPP – Obama by 2
4/2: Insider Advantage – Clinton by 2

This suggests strong trending for Obama, and at this point I’m beginning to expect that next week’s polls will all show Clinton leads of 10 or less. I will revisit my prediction for the race at that time. An undeniable fact is that Clinton has not held a lead of more than 12 in any poll conducted in the past two weeks. Without a win by 20 or more, it will simply be impossible for Clinton to catch Obama in pledged delegates.

UPDATE – NEW POLL (link is to preview only)
Strategic Vision: Pennsylvania
Clinton: 49
Obama: 41