04.22.08
Final Pennsylvania Polls: Undecideds break for Clinton? (Zogby C+10)
Latest Pennsylvania primary polls:
| Pollster | Date | Obama | Clinton |
|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | 4/21 | 42 | 49 |
| Zogby | 4/20-4/21 | 41 | 51 |
| Insider Advantage | 4/20 | 39 | 49 |
| Rasmussen | 4/20 | 44 | 49 |
| PPP | 4/19-4/20 | 49 | 46 |
| Quinnipiac | 4/18-4/20 | 44 | 51 |
| SUSA | 4/18-4/20 | 44 | 50 |
| Suffolk U. | 4/19-4/20 | 42 | 52 |
| Zogby | 4/19-4/20 | 42 | 48 |
| Strategic Vision | 4/18-4/20 | 41 | 48 |
| ARG | 4/17-4/19 | 41 | 54 |
| Zogby | 4/18-4/19 | 43 | 46 |
| Mason-Dixon/McClatchy | 4/17-4/18 | 43 | 48 |
| Zogby | 4/17-4/18 | 42 | 47 |
To recap:
PPP: O+3
Rasmussen: C+5
Mason-Dixon: C+5
SUSA: C+6
Quinnipiac: C+7
Zogby: C+10
Suffolk U.: C+10
InsiderAdvantage: C+10
ARG: C+13
I’m very, very tempted to scrap my prediction from yesterday, decide that undecideds will break mostly for Clinton, and give her a 9-12% lead. But Zogby’s final day’s Ohio poll showed the race was a tie, which proved far less accurate than the polls from the day before (like SUSA’s dead-on 10 point margin). So, as I see it, there are 3 scenarios:
Scenario 1: SUSA is very accurate. This is the scenario I went with yesterday. Clinton wins by 4%-8%, with a likely median of 6%. SUSA nailed Ohio, California, and Massachusetts.
Scenario 2: Undecideds break for Clinton. This is the next most likely scenario. Clinton wins by 9%-15%, with a likely median of 12%. This is what Elliot predicts on his delegate-by-delegate breakdown. SUSA’s final Texas poll has Obama ahead by 1, when the final result was Clinton by 4%, neatly predicted by Zogby’s final day numbers. Zogby was also more accurate in Missouri, which SUSA botched.
Scenario 3: PPP is on to something. PPP nailed Ohio, Texas, and were closer than anyone on South Carolina. This scenario involved either an Obama win or a Clinton victory of 3% or less. Al Giordano of The Field predicts a Clinton win of 4.6%, which is close to this scenario. This scenario means that the other pollsters failed to properly model the surge in voter registration, and that tons of first-time Democratic voters will push Obama to outperform expectations.
After careful consideration, I am scrapping yesterday’s fling with 6%, and going back to what I predicted all of last week, which was “Clinton will win by 5%-15%, with a median of 9%” – and I will blend them. Clinton will win by 4%-13%, with a median of 8%, and gain 12 delegates. This is the median between scenarios 1 and 2, and assumes that SUSA was right, but then the undecideds break 2-1 for Clinton, giving a final result of Clinton 53.5%, Obama 45.5%. I think Dan Abrams predicted 8% last night as well.
UPDATE: Added InsiderAdvantage, which shows C+7, up 3 for Obama since yesterday. This doesn’t impact my prediction.
Rigg said,
April 22, 2008 at 8:11 am
Somehow I am just bored with this thing.
Both of these Democrats will be bad for out Country.
Today I need humor,
Check out this HIll-arious post at:
EDIT BY XSTRYKER: No, you can’t have traffic for your right-wing nonsense, sorry.
Pandora said,
April 22, 2008 at 2:44 pm
Way to go, X! I’m way too on edge to deal with right wing nonsense. Why don’t they find their own candidate to blast… oops! I forgot! They have McCain! I wish them luck.
Pennsylvania Elections Results « Election Inspection said,
April 23, 2008 at 9:58 am
[...] other words, 9.2%. Still single digits, and still doesn’t round up to 10. So I was off by 1.2% and 1 delegate (so far). Not [...]