05.31.08
Florida and Michigan at half-strength
Sounds like the Florida delegates will be seated as is, but at half strength (including super-delegates) in addition Michigan was seated at 69 Clinton 59 Obama (seated at half strength). Democratic Convention Watch has the new numbers:
The RBC has just ruled that Florida’s pledged delegates and superdelegates will be seated at 1/2 vote each.
The RBC has ruled the Michigan’s pledged delegates be split 34.5-29.5 (69-59 at 1/2 delegate each), and superdelegates will be seated at 1/2 vote each.
Dem Con Watch shows that Obama is now 64 delegates away from the nomination. Obama should get a minimum of 35 delegates from the final primaries, meaning that Obama should, at the end of the primaries, be, at worst, 29 super-delegates away from “officially” clinching the nomination. By the way, the Rules and Bylaws Committee was Clinton’s best chance at getting a favorable outcome, there is no way the Credentials Committee, which will be dominated by Obama supporters, allows this to move forward. Expect Obama to be the presumptive nominee by next Thursday.
The Fate of Florida and Michigan
Well, today is the day we will finally learn what will happen to Florida and Michigan and the day when it will become painfully obvious that Hillary Clinton will not be the Democratic nominee (sorry Clinton supporters who are still in denial)
Incidentally, Carl Levin is still an egotistical jack-ass who can’t put the party (and the people in his state who DIDN’T VOTE BECAUSE THEY THOUGHT IT WASN’T GOING COUNT) ahead of himself. You know, what would be really great is if they stripped Levin of his vote at the same time they reinstate everyone else (I know it’s not going to happen, but we can dream, can’t we?)
UPDATE: Surprise surprise Clinton supporter who voted to strip delegates from Michigan now apparantly care about the votes. These Clinton supporters are disengenious…
(UPDATE: What is up with these comparisons to the Democratic Primary in Florida and random oppressive regimes?)
(UPDATE: I’m getting really tired of the hypocrites of these Clinton supporters on the Rules committee. They vote to strip Florida and Michigan of their votes and then they complain about it…)
ALERT: Harold Ickes is a dishonest hack, I do love that he cares so much about making sure that Florida and Michigan have a voice, but only after it was clear that they would help Hillary Clinton. Oh and spot on to Carl Levin for calling Ickes out on his BS, I feel better about him.
UPDATE: So let me get this straight, because Michigan didn’t hear that Clinton had said that it wasn’t going to count until after the fact, that somehow makes it invalid…?
05.30.08
Latest Governor Polls
From the newly added Governor polls page on the sidebar, here are the latest Governor polls:
| State | Incumbent | Poll | Dem Candidate | % | Rep Candidate | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | Daniels | Research 2000 4/21-4/24 | Jill Long Thompson | 45 | Mitch Daniels | 45 |
| MO | Blunt | SUSA 5/16-5/18 | Jay Nixon | 57 | Kenny Hulshof | 33 |
| MO | Blunt | SUSA 5/16-5/18 | Jay Nixon | 58 | Sarah Steelman | 33 |
| MT | Schweitzer | Mason-Dixon 5/19-5/21 | Brian Schweitzer | 55 | Roy Brown | 30 |
| NC | Easley | SUSA 5/17-5/19 | Bev Perdue | 52 | Pat McCrory | 45 |
| UT | Huntsman | Dan Jones & Assoc. 5/13-5/19 | Bob Springmeyer | 13 | Jon Huntsman | 77 |
| WA | Gregoire | Rasmussen 5/12 | Christine Gregoire | 52 | Dino Rossi | 41 |
Thus far, Missouri looks to be a Safe Democratic pickup, while Indiana is a toss-up. Vermont is currently unpolled, but State Speaker of the House Gaye Symington (D-VT) could make the race against incumbent GOP Gov. Jim Douglas a competitive one. North Carolina and Washington look like likely Democratic retentions so far. I don’t expect Utah, North Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, or New Hampshire to become competitive, and the only question in Delaware is which Democrat will win the primary.
I’m nearly done adding and updating features on the site, and thus next week I expect I will get back to posting more frequently. Thanks go to Elliot, Rob (skywrnchsr) and Taget for providing much of the front-page content lately whilst I’ve been busy updating all the state pages. Stay tuned for the next phase in the evolution of Election Inspection – and keep your fingers crossed for an America where Democrats control the White House, 30 governorships, 60 Senate seats, 250 House seats, and 25 state legislatures (both chambers).
A Friend in Need
James Wolcott says it best. Al Giordano is among the best journalists around, and so his place should definitely be at Denver for the Democrats’ convention. Let’s help send him to Denver.
05.29.08
NY-13 – And the winner is. Frank Powers?
The Republican search for a candidate ends with … Francis H Powers. With their first, second, third, and perhaps even fourth tier candidates balking at running and with the party near broke the Republicans have turned to the finest counterpoint to the “elitist” Democrats. A rich investment banker.
http://www.silive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/05/gop_nominates_powers_to_run_fo.html
Introducing Francis H Power. Member of a number of different local boards, member of the Metropolitan Transit Authority, and former partner in the investment banking firm Weiss, Peck & Greer, LLC.
Francis H. Powers was a partner and managing director of Weiss, Peck & Greer, LLC, from 1977 to 2002, a firm now owned by Robobank/Robesco. While at the firm he was head of its Operations and Clearing Services Division, served as treasurer for the company’s public mutual funds, provided management supervision for information technology, and was in charge of human resources functions. He also served on the firm’s Management and Operations Committees.
Prior to joining Weiss, Peck & Greer, Mr. Powers was a partner with Faulkner, Dawkins & Sullivan, Inc. for nearly ten years, where he was in charge of operations processing, human resources, and facilities planning. He also helped merge the firm into what became Shearson Lehman, Inc.
In addition to being a member of the New York Stock Exchange and the Chicago Board of Options for more than 20 years, Mr. Powers has been one of Wall Street’s innovators and pioneers in securities processing operations. He led the effort to reengineer and provide automation of the movement of securities, working with all of the major industry firms and facilities, and served as president of the Securities Industries Operations Division.
He has demonstrated a substantial commitment to giving back to the community in many ways. Highlights include service as president of the Staten Island Academy, the oldest independent school in New York City; 20 years of membership on the board of trustees of St. Vincent’s Hospital, Staten Island, serving on its Finance Committee and as assistant treasurer. He has also been president of the Downtown Athletic Club and president of the Heisman Trophy Foundation.
In 2006 he was elected to the board of trustees of Wagner College and is chair of the Endowment Committee.
http://www.mta.info/mta/leadership/powers.htm
His ability to self-fund no doubt was a prime motivator in his recruitment. The question is how rich is he and how much of his own money is he willing to spend?
Certainly this is a break for the Democrats. But don’t get too complacent. A nobody with money can sometimes become a somebody.
EDIT: As we thought. It’s all about the benjamins.
One GOP executive committee member told the Advance that Powers informed the committee during an interview last night that he would spend $500,000 of his own money on the race and would raise $500,000 more.
“He said it like it was no big deal,” the committee member said. “I believe him. He’s such a successful guy. It was very matter-of-fact.”
Powers last night would not tell the Advance how much of his own money he’d put into the race, but added, “I’m willing to do that to jump-start my campaign.”
Not everyone is behind granddaddy warbucks. Including the GOP Finance chair.
But Dr. Jamshad Wyne, who interviewed with the party last night even though he’d said he was pulling out of the race last weekend, objected to the Powers pick.
He left the convention before the final vote was taken, saying he would support McMahon in the race.
“I like Frank Powers,” he said. “But I think Mike is a better candidate. We should be willing to cross party lines to support the best candidate.”
Dr. Wyne said he did not know how his support of McMahon would affect his position as borough GOP finance chair.
http://www.silive.com/news/advance/index.ssf?/base/news/1212148813147900.xml&coll=1&thispage=3
05.28.08
Update from the Richmond County Democratic Committee Meeting (NY-13)
Got back from Richmond County Democratic Committee meeting in Staten Island. Always meant to become more involved with the local Democratic Party since moving here but never quite got around to it. More or less the same as other Democratic Party official organs I’ve seen elsewhere. Very grey with most of the members being rather clubby and knowing each other. But also welcoming to new and younger blood coming in. I can’t emphasize enough how much people need to get involved in local parties and not just in political campaigns. We often complain about their decisions (or the decisions made by the party organs above them) but if we ourselves aren’t involved we are the only one to blame if we disagree with them.
The meeting was held in a large ballroom filled with chairs and a podium up front for the party executive committee. Most people in the room were committee members but guests were permitted to observe and sit among the members. The Steve Harrison campaign sent a number of volunteers who passed out stickers and campaign literature. The room was filled to capacity I’d estimate over 250 people attended.
Inside Michael McMahon worked the room like an old school pol. A clear sign that he was in fact running. An even cleared sign was his endorsement by the executive committee which was followed after great nomination speeches by supporters of the two candidates with an endorsement by the rest of the committee on a 131 to 40 vote. The Harrison people were loud but badly outnumbered.
My analysis? If you want to win a Staten Island district this is your guy. Well known throughout the Island. Good campaigner. Someone with a good relationship with the Borough President (who he acknowledged in his speech), Conservative Chairman James Molinaro.
Before that sends shivers up your spine I have to note here that the borough Conservative Party is in many ways comparable to the old city Liberal Party. More about influence, patronage, and often sheer pettiness than necessarily anything to do with ideology. And given that they have been cat fighting with the Republicans, particularly those allied with Vito Fossella, this is a golden opportunity. While I don’t expect Michael McMahon to get the Conservative Party nomination he interviewed for just getting the Conservative Party to nominate a spoiler would be huge for us.
And most importantly Michael McMahon is with us on the issues that matter to us such as Iraq, health care, or whatever other issue you can name. He’s not perfect but he’s pretty solid.
Steve Harrison supporters offered the following argument for their guy. That with the North Shore of Staten Island going Democratic and the South Shore going Republican that exciting Democratic Brooklyn where Harrison is from is the key to victory. That their guy has name recognition from having run in the district before and other Democrats in the district have done better in local races after being given a second opportunity. And perhaps most compellingly that he had the guts to challenge Vito back when everyone else was taking a pass.
He doesn’t make a bad case for himself. Except that the real swing area in the district with Brooklyn being overwhelmingly Democratic is mid Staten Island. And even making a case for Brooklyn is impolitic while campaigning for votes among Staten Island Democrats.
For me Michael McMahon is both a better candidate and a stronger candidate. I’m sure some of you will disagree.
And some unrelated but important news nonetheless.
At the start of the meeting Party Chairman and Hillary Clinton supporter John Gulino announced that he has been appointed as a member to the Rules Committee. I asked for and got confirmation afterwards that it was THE Rules and Bylaws Committee. No idea who he would be replacing. The ineligible to vote Allan Katz of Florida or Mark Brewer of Michigan? Or someone else?
The irony of the Clinton campaign
This isn’t going to be long, just found this little gem at The New Republic:
On other intangible ways to think about presidents, Clinton’s campaign has defined the proper role of president in ways that are more conducive to male candidates. Men are usually going to appear more “authentic” than women shooting guns or knocking back shots in a bar. Clinton advisor James Carville declared at one point, “If she gave him one of her cojones, they’d both have two.” This way of defining the proper character and style of a president may have been helpful to Hillary Clinton’s efforts to beat Obama, but they’re harmful to female candidate in general. To the extent that presidential qualities are defined as “manly,” women have a harder time competing. Obama is trying to move the frame of debate away from the manly-tough guy stuff, but Hillary keeps dragging it back down.
This isn’t amusing to me, in fact it’s kinda tragic, for all of Clinton’s talk about being unfairly attacked because of her gender, she’s actually made it harder for another woman to make a credible run at the presidency in the future. Well, in any case, I hope that the United States does ultimately elect a woman to be president (and believe me, there are plenty of women who I would throw my support behind in a heart beat, just not this particular one).
Latest Puerto Rico Poll: Clinton 51, Obama 38
Hat tip to el mito at MyDD, who translates (I fixed his grammar):
Hillary Clinton was the Democratic presidential candidate favored by Puerto Ricans in a poll by El Vocero and Univision, by a comfortable margin of 13% against Barack Obama. The second finding is that no matter which Democratic candidate wins the primary, both have an outstanding lead against the Republican, McCain, of around 62%. Hillary obtained 51% against Obama’s 38%. 8% will not vote for any or don’t know.
This is identical to Hillary’s 13% lead on April’s Research & Research poll. It doesn’t matter how they do against McCain here, since Puerto Rico does not vote in the general election.
Clinton will win Puerto Rico by 10-20%, with a median of 15%.
05.26.08
GOP Ethics Chair cheats on wife – support Vietnam Vet Bill O’Neill for Memorial Day
Cross-posted on DailyKos – if you are a DailyKos member, please click and recommend the diary.
UPDATE: Also please recommend on MyDD and Talking Points Memo.
Ohio’s 14th district is in the suburbs of Cleveland – exactly the kind of place where Democrats have been making inroads in the past two cycles. The PVI of the district is R+2 – a very winnable district. Steve LaTourette has a scandal against him and an opponent who’s both a Vietnam Vet and an elected Judge. We need to send O’Neill money to help get this race onto the DCCC radar and attract attention from VoteVets as well. That’s right, the only barrier to this race becoming competitive is money, the one thing nearly any of us can help with. Send a lot or a little to a veteran running for congress this Memorial Day.
Bill O’Neill is a Vietnam veteran who received a Bronze Star – that’s patriotism that no flag pin can match. He’s also been a civil rights lawyer, a small businessman, and a union organizer – a man who understands the economic challenges faced by Ohioans who’ve felt the brunt of the Bush Economy. In more recent years, he’s been one of the most respected appellate judges in Ohio – a man of integrity who can be trusted to make sure that no man, even the President of the United States, is above the law. He stepped down from the bench in June 2007 to run for Congress, because he knows a judge cannot be compromised by the trials of campaigning. Learn more about O’Neill.
Steve LaTourette is scum – he cheated on his wife with his chief of staff, who became a lobbyist, who LaTourette then remarried after getting a divorce. So he’s literally in bed with a lobbyist, and she suddenly got all sorts of new clients. For example, she represents the Cleveland-Cuyahoga County Port Authority, while he’s the ranking member on the Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime, a part of the Transportation and Infrastructure committee. This isn’t why the GOP removed him as chair of the Ethics committee, of course – they simply didn’t like his toothless admonishment (with no penalties) of Tom Delay. LaTourette quickly fell in line after that. Salon article on LaTourette by Cliff Schecter.
So please – rec this diary, spread the word, and Donate to Bill O’Neill!
05.25.08
Memorial Day Donor Bomb starts…..NOW!
We here at Election Inspection are hosting a donor bomb for Lt. Colonel Bill O’Neill in honor of his service to this country on today, Memorial Day, when we honor all of our veterans.
The ActBlue page can be found here:
ActBlue — Memorial Day Donor Bomb
With your generous support, Lt. Colonel O’Neill can take those few steps that he must to achieve Red to Blue status with the DCCC and possibly get the endorsement of VoteVets. We hope for both and that this race in Ohio’s 14 congressional district will be added to our list of victories in November. Please consider giving a donation to Bill O’Neill and supporting your troops in a way George W. Bush never wanted you to – by giving them some cash to throw the Republicans out of office.
Thank you
Army Specialist Robert P. Millette
