05.06.08
Final Indiana and North Carolina Polls
Latest Indiana primary polls:
| Pollster | Date | Obama | Clinton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby | 5/4-5/5 | 45 | 43 |
| PPP | 5/3-5/4 | 46 | 51 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 5/4 | 44 | 48 |
| ARG | 5/2-5/4 | 45 | 53 |
| SUSA | 5/2-5/4 | 42 | 54 |
| Suffolk U. | 5/3-5/4 | 43 | 49 |
| Zogby | 5/3-5/4 | 44 | 42 |
| Zogby | 5/2-5/3 | 43 | 41 |
| Zogby | 5/1-5/2 | 43 | 42 |
| ARG | 4/30-5/1 | 44 | 53 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 4/30-5/1 | 40 | 47 |
| Zogby | 4/30-5/1 | 42 | 42 |
| Downs Center/SUSA | 4/28-4/30 | 45 | 52 |
| TeleResearch | 4/25-4/29 | 38 | 48 |
| Rasmussen | 4/29 | 41 | 46 |
Interestingly enough, the state of Indiana does not allow automated calls, even for polling. This is probably why Rasmussen appears to be sticking with his 4/29 poll instead of doing one for the final few days of the race. On to the analysis:
Zogby: Obama by 2, holding steady from yesterday. Outlier!
PPP: Clinton by 5.
InsiderAdvantage: Clinton by 4, down 3 from late last week.
ARG: Clinton by 8, down 1 from late last week.
SUSA: Clinton by 12, up 3 from last week. Outlier!
Suffolk: Clinton by 6.
Downs Center: Clinton by 7.
TeleResearch: Clinton by 10.
Rasmussen: Clinton by 5.
I actually think PPP and InsiderAdvantage (somewhat more accurate outside the South) are on to something here. Comparatively, SUSA’s demographics really look off. So despite my call yesterday, I’m going to revise it in Obama’s favor. Obama should also have a better GOTV operation along the Illinois border, especially in Gary. Applying a little “hometown effect” to the numbers would neutralize the “undecideds for the winner” effect. So here goes: Clinton will win Indiana by 4%-10%, with a median of 6.5% and a net delegate gain of 4. Elliot predicts a 3.4% win for Clinton and a delegate tie.
Latest North Carolina primary polls:
| Pollster | Date | Obama | Clinton |
|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | 5/5 | 47 | 43 |
| Zogby | 5/4-5/5 | 51 | 37 |
| SUSA | 5/2-5/4 | 50 | 45 |
| ARG | 5/2-5/4 | 50 | 42 |
| PPP | 5/3-5/4 | 53 | 43 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 5/4 | 48 | 45 |
| Zogby | 5/3-5/4 | 48 | 40 |
| Zogby | 5/2-5/3 | 48 | 39 |
| Zogby | 5/1-5/2 | 46 | 37 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 5/1 | 47 | 40 |
| Rasmussen | 5/1 | 49 | 40 |
| ARG | 4/30-5/1 | 52 | 41 |
| Zogby | 4/30-5/1 | 50 | 34 |
| Research 2000 | 4/29-4/30 | 51 | 44 |
| Mason-Dixon | 4/28-4/29 | 49 | 42 |
| InisderAdvantage | 4/29 | 42 | 44 |
InsiderAdvantage always undercounts Obama by an average of 7 points. Either ignore them or add 7 to Obama’s numbers for them.
InsiderAdvantage: Obama by 4, up 1 from yesterday. Outlier! (Or add 7 – Obama by 11)
Zogby: Obama by 14, up 6 from yesterday.
SUSA: Obama by 5, unchanged from last week.
ARG: Obama by 8, down 3 from late last week.
PPP: Obama by 10, down 2 from last week.
Rasmussen: Obama by 9.
Research 2000: Obama by 7.
Mason-Dixon: Obama by 7.
What to make of these Zogby numbers? They say what we’ve all been thinking, but can we possibly trust Zogby? Well, my go-to pollster in North Carolina is PPP, and I think Obama is likely to have improved his numbers since the weekend. He does have a superior organization here, and early polling is favoring Obama to a huge extent. So I’m going to say the undecideds from PPP break for Obama 3 to 1. Once again, I’m going to improve Obama’s numbers from my prediction yesterday: Obama will win North Carolina by 7%-17%, with a median of 12% and a net gain of 11 delegates. Elliot predicts an Obama win of 18.8% and a 15 delegate net gain.
Watch this space around 6pm for exit polls (and don’t take them too seriously, please), followed by liveblogging of the results.
sak said,
May 6, 2008 at 10:19 am
Based on the latest analysis, Obama will not lose Indiana by no more than 4% because of the huge turnout in Indianapolis and Lake county.
Clintonista said,
May 6, 2008 at 10:46 am
If Hillary takes Indiana with a commanding lead and just barely loses North Carolina, the superdelegates need to start defecting from Camp Obama and join Camp Clinton.
The Clintonista Post’s prediction for tonight: Obama Campaign = the Red Star Line
See what the winning side looks like at http://clintonistapost.wordpress.com
Elliot said,
May 6, 2008 at 11:00 am
Uh huh…
And pigs will fly with rockets fueled by penguin crap…
Michael said,
May 6, 2008 at 11:16 am
In Georgia, there are over a dozen rural counties where the number of African-American Democratic primary voters was larger than the number of Obama voters. I’m interested to see if Obama can win by Appalachian proportions in counties like Anson, Bertie, Cumberland, Edgecombe, Halifax, and so on. If he receives over 75% of the vote in all of those counties, that would foreshadow a blowout of the proportions Elliot expects. (Assuming that rural counties report earliest.)
Michael said,
May 6, 2008 at 11:36 am
The trickle of new results in the NC state board of elections data since early voting ended on Saturday has been encouraging.
Sunday’s votes: 722 AA, 571 white, 110 other
Monday’s votes: 1713 AA, 1132 white, 137 other
Current percentages, including one stop, mailed, and “request by relative” ballots, are 39.8% AA, 56.6% white, 3.7% other.
ckasih said,
May 7, 2008 at 8:16 am
shocked: MALAYSIA MAKE NEW RULES FOR CHRISTIANS!!
EVERY CHRISTIANS MUST SAY “ALLAH” RATHER THAN “GOD” & DONT SAY “TRINITY” ANYMORE..
This is because English language not suitable anymore because the original Bible is in Arabic.
The full story is here: ckasih.blogspot.com