05.10.08
The Hackery Goes On and On
Posted in The Hack Files, opinion tagged barack obama, Democratic Primaries, Hillary Clinton, intellectual dishonesty, jerome armstrong, mydd, primaries, West Virginia at 12:38 pm by Elliot
I was wondering whether or not Obama’s effective wrapping up of the nomination would finally force Jerome to figure out that this is over. Sadly, though, he wants to pretend that West Virginia has magically powers which give it the ability to completely override everything that has already happened. But even better than that is that he wants to pretend that Florida and Michigan will still be able to change the final outcome. He writes:
The following week, Barack Obama has planned a party to claim the nomination in Portland, based on his own campaigns measurement. He can say whatever he wants, but it’s an insult to intelligence to believe it until it happens by the rules. As Howard Dean has said many times, MI and FL are going to be resolved and seated. Obama has now agreed with that position. Like it or not, the working number of delegates is 2209. There’s not a rule that says if you get a plurality of the pledged delegates, you win.
The Obama campaign will declare that there’s never been a candidate denied the election who had the most pledged delegates. True. But has there been a candidate denied the nomination whose had the most votes? I don’t think so. But neither of those metrics matters. 2209, or whatever the number is after the resolution of MI and FL happens to be, is all that matters. Until then, we don’t have a nominee.
Uh, Jerome, this might come as a surprise to someone who lives in a fantasy world where fairies fly from people’s buttholes, but the magic number is 2025.5 unless Florida and Michigan are seated. Until something official happens, you can’t hide behind the rules when the rules say that 2025.5 is the official number needed to secure the nomination. However, since I enjoy making Jerome look like he doesn’t know what the hell he’s talking about (it’s one of my twisted pleasures) let’s assume that Florida is seated as is and that Michigan’s pledged delegates are split 69-59, as Michigan’s state party has requested (since Jerome wants to pull numbers out of his ass, I’m going to oblige). Under this theory Obama will now clinch the majority pledged delegates on… May 20! Yes, even under those circumstances, Obama will only need to net 52 pledged delegates (and, as my district-by-district analysis will soon show, Obama is guaranteed to win at least 53 delegates by May 20).
But wait, his ass-hattery continues, Jerome is once again trying to imply that Hillary Clinton will end up with the most votes. Since Jerome has apparantly failed basic arithmetic, I’m going to explain something very, very simple. First of all, any victory scenario for Clinton requires that Florida and Michigan count and that Obama is assumed to have ZERO votes, if Obama is accredited the Uncommitted votes or the vote total is reapportioned through the exit polls, it is not possible for Hillary Clinton to win the popular vote. Second of all, if you’re counting the caucus results in Iowa, Nevada, Maine, and Washington State (which, despite what Jerome and the other delusional hacks want to believe did hold legitimate contests), then unless Clinton wins by a minimum of 15% and the territory has a minimum turnout of 200,000 voters (neither is guaranteed) then even allocating zero votes from Michigan still lets Obama keep a slim lead.
This whole season has made me see some so-called progressives in a completely different light. I’ve gotten quite disgusted with the dishonesty of people like Jerome. While I mercilessly mock him here, I’ve reached the point where I’m just disgusted with the dishonesty of the pro-Clinton blogosphere (not all of it, mind you, but with the hacks like Jerome). Jerome titled his diary with the name of “Deal With Defeat”, well maybe you should heed your own advice, Jerome.
(UPDATE) By the way, any Clinton supporters who want to use the popular vote argument should realize that SUSA released a poll from California showing Obama beating Clinton by 6 points if a new primary were held. So what’s that about “respecting the popular opinion” Jerome?
ikl said,
May 10, 2008 at 3:27 pm
Considering Armstrong’s past, this isn’t exactly surprising . . . honesty is not his strong suit.
latina for obama said,
May 10, 2008 at 3:29 pm
Elliot–In all fairness Jerome is not saying anything his own candidate and Harold Ickes are not saying. Oh wait. I just checked and simply parroting a campaign’s talking points until you are blue in the face regardless of reality makes one.. a HACK!
Thanks for the call out to reality Elliot. I am sure it will only get worse (Tuesday) before it gets better.
Mark said,
May 10, 2008 at 3:47 pm
Here is statistical analysis as to whether my Clinton can take the lead in the PV.
Answer: yes and no. Most likely no.
Pandora said,
May 10, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Earlier this week I wrote a post over at delawareliberal.net (shameless plug!) called: “Brace yourself. West Virginia and Kentucky are about to join the list of states that ‘Matter’”. My concern was that the MSM would buy into the spin. So far they seem to be playing it down, but… I’m not holding my breath.
ollie said,
May 10, 2008 at 6:34 pm
I swear, HRC and her minions are more and more reminding me of GWB and his faithful 29%. She lives in a bubble and her supporters are willfully blind.
xstryker said,
May 10, 2008 at 6:50 pm
I seriously wonder whether he’s going to have any credibility left when he tries to support Obama after the convention.
ikl said,
May 10, 2008 at 7:03 pm
This is what I was talking about:
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/08/10/a-netroots-founder-amid-a-stock-scandal/
Elliot said,
May 10, 2008 at 7:32 pm
He lost his credibility a long time ago, he’s a disgrace to progressives and to the Democratic Party.
Markus said,
May 11, 2008 at 12:36 am
Wasn’t the polling in CA showing Obama in the lead just before the primary, too?
Elliot said,
May 11, 2008 at 1:03 am
That was Zogby, SUSA’s polling showed Clinton ahead by 10.