05.12.08
Latest West Virginia and Kentucky Polls: Appalachia is Clinton Country
Latest West Virginia primary polls:
| Pollster | Date | Obama | Clinton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk U. | 5/10-5/11 | 24 | 60 |
| ARG | 5/7-5/8 | 23 | 66 |
| Rasmussen | 5/4 | 27 | 56 |
| TSG Consulting | 5/3 | 22 | 63 |
| Rasmussen | 3/13 | 27 | 55 |
| Mark Blankenship Enterprises | 2/18-2/21 | 22 | 43 |
Latest Kentucky primary polls:
| Pollster | Date | Obama | Clinton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research 2000 | 5/7-5/9 | 31 | 58 |
| Rasmussen | 5/5 | 31 | 56 |
| SUSA | 5/3-5/5 | 28 | 62 |
| SUSA | 4/26-4/28 | 27 | 63 |
| SUSA | 4/12-4/14 | 26 | 62 |
| SUSA | 3/28-3/30 | 29 | 58 |
Clinton will win both these states by 25% or more. Predicting the exact margin in a blowout like this is virtually impossible, but if I had to hazard a guess, I’d say that Clinton will win about 70% of the vote in both states.
jkojs said,
May 12, 2008 at 1:06 pm
I think it will be no more than Clinton 65-35 in W.VA and Clinton 60-40 in KY.
jkojs said,
May 12, 2008 at 1:07 pm
Also, the media spin will soon follow once Clinton gains atleast 400,000 popular votes in these two states making popular vote as the prime factor to secure a nomination. so the comming weeks will be a hell lot of mess…..
ikl said,
May 12, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Doesn’t matter. Getting 10,000,000 more votes doesn’t help Clinton win if enough super delegates have already decided. That is the only thing that popular vote matters for.
latina for obama said,
May 12, 2008 at 3:02 pm
I just saw somewhere else that the Clinton’s are predicting a 90 to 10 win. Can any of you please explain?
xstryker said,
May 12, 2008 at 4:23 pm
90 to 10 is ridiculous. Where did you see that? Obama is actually making campaign stops in these states and he has gotten some good endorsements (Ben Chandler, John Yarmuth, Jay Rockefeller). 70/30 seems reasonable, 80/20 could be possible, but 90/10 is absurd.
Obama: not popular in Appalachia « blueollie said,
May 12, 2008 at 5:13 pm
[...] Blow outs are all but impossible predict, so I’ll go with 65-35 though it might end up worse than that. Go to Election Inspection for the ugly, ugly numbers. [...]
Elliot said,
May 12, 2008 at 6:22 pm
Eh, I doubt that it would ever get to 80-20, even in bad congressional districts, Obama’s been able to generally hit 30%-35%. I’ll stick with Clinton 67% Obama 30% and other getting 3% (for a 19-9 or 20-8 delegate split in West Virginia). Also, something to keep in mind about Kentucky is that it isn’t quite as hostile for Obama as West Virginia is (Kentucky is better educated, has more African Americans, and has a younger median age than West Virginia, in fact, look for Obama to perform a good 5-7 points better in Kentucky than in West Virginia).
latina for obama said,
May 12, 2008 at 10:25 pm
Stryker–this comment came from Bill and someone else today in W Va while on the trail. Ridiculous I agree but hey, I guess they thought why not throw the number out there? Seems they never met a hand they could not overplay.
Susa said,
May 13, 2008 at 6:59 am
Bill Clinton predicted they would win by 80% margin.
Pandora said,
May 13, 2008 at 7:03 am
I’m not sure I’ll survive the Clinton spin coming off WV. Fresh meat for the pundits. Won’t change a damn thing… except the conversation.
Susa said,
May 13, 2008 at 7:05 am
Anyone notice what the polls are for the Republicans… strange…. McCain is only predicted to get about 33%… the rest going to Guilliani and others…. strange or what?