05.18.08
The State of the Democratic Race (Complete with Pledged Delegate Projections)
Posted in Presidential Primaries, analysis tagged barack obama, delegates, democratic primary, Hillary Clinton, projections, Super Delegates at 12:26 pm by Elliot
Well, it’s been a wild and bumpy primary season, and I’ve been making delegate projections since the Pennsylvania primaries, so I’d like to take a few moments to see how things have gone. For a brief recap; I nailed the Pennsylvania projection (Projected Clinton +12; Actual Clinton +12), I overestimated Obama’s delegate strength in Indiana (Projected Clinton +0; Actual Clinton +4), I underestimated Obama’s North Carolina delegate haul (Projected Obama +15; Actual Obama +19), and I understated Clinton’s West Virginia numbers (Projected Clinton +10; Actual Clinton +12). I projected that Clinton would net 7 delegates from all of these contests, she netted 9 (I underestimated Clinton twice and Obama once, for those who think that I’m underestimating Obama in Oregon). I’ve already got delegate projections ready for Montana and South Dakota (and I have an estimate for Puerto Rico which I’m not even going to try to do a micro-level projection for just because I don’t know enough about the island).
As it stands, I’m projecting that Obama will have 1701.5 pledged delegates to Clinton’s 1545.5 (Obama +156) (this doesn’t include the two pledged delegates who have switched). If you add in the super-delegates who have declared their preferences (Obama 295.5, Clinton 273.5) the projected total delegates is Obama 1997 (29 away from the majority of delegates) Clinton 1819 (207 delegates away from the majority). If my delegate projections are accurate and assuming that all caucus results stay the same (Nevada’s state convention gave Obama an extra delegate and cost Clinton one), Obama only needs 29 more super-delegates to get 2026. Assuming that my projections for Oregon and Kentucky are correct (I project that Obama 46 delegates from both states) he’ll need another 75 super-delegates to clinch the nomination before the Rules and By-Laws committee meets on May 31 (and to disagree with Todd Beeton, just because the current pace of super-delegate endorsements don’t give Obama that, doesn’t necessarily mean that Obama doesn’t have enough private support among super-delegates now [meaning that the pace of endorsing super-delegates should be expected to pick up after Tuesday]).
Mark said,
May 18, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Good analysis. I predict that Obama will pick up between 28-30 PDS on Tuesday.
And here on my blog is a statistical analysis of how many PDs Obama is away from a PD-lock (absolute majority) in six different scenarios.
By my calculations, he is only 14 PDs away from a lock according the the current PD stand of 3,253, but if he nets around 50 PDs on Tuesday, then he also locks-up the absolute PD majority even if you throw FL into the mix, and even if you through both FL and MI into the mix, with the 59 delegates in MI given to Obama per the MI proposal last week.
The chart is easy to navigate. Stop by.
Rob C said,
May 18, 2008 at 2:06 pm
Good job. I’m enjoying your predictions and analysis.
=j said,
May 18, 2008 at 3:51 pm
One thing to consider is the “Pelosi club” of superdelegates that plan to support whoever wins the majority of pledged delegates. I think demconwatch has nine total.
Jack said,
May 19, 2008 at 11:35 am
I wonder if those sphincters are tightening at all after the ARG and Suffolk polls both show it as a 5 pt or less race in OR? Could be a long night in Des Moines tomorrow.
Obama will look awfully stupid claiming any victory of any sort after he gets blown out by 35 in KY and squeaks by in OR.
I remember some laughed here when I said after WV, KY, OR and PR, Hillary would be ahead in the popular vote.
She netted 150K last week. I look for her to net a similar amount tomorrow. Add on Puerto Rico and it looks like we’re headed to the convention.
Looks like Obama just can’t close the deal. His polling has actually gone down since Edwards endorsed him. Maybe he has Carter on ice for Wednesday. That should really help him.
Elliot said,
May 19, 2008 at 11:49 am
If you’re looking at ARG (the WORST pollster around) for information on any Democratic contest, you’re barking up the wrong tree.
Incidentally, if you want to look at Suffolk, a pollster that shows a full 6% refusing to respond and 8% undecided when at least 75% of votes should already be in (they do balloting by mail), you’ve got some issues to work out.
One other thing, if Obama is beating out Clinton pretty consistantly in the national polls, and there is evidence that Obama would outperform his previous results in states like California, Nevada, New Hampshire, and the like, how can you possibly use this bullshit popular vote argument for the “will of the people”?
Sunny said,
May 24, 2008 at 6:32 am
Enough! How much more can they dish out? How much more can she take? The Democratic Party doesn’t deserve her talent, popularity and brillance. She needs to move to the INDEPENDENT Party and get away from all this delegate/superdelegate/swiftboating/sexist nonsense. To be talked into the VP ticket is crazy! This would only insure that Obama gets the Prez position because he cannot win without her supporters on the VP ticket–so they will push the “party-loyalty” BS. Talk about lowering the “glass ceiling” AGAIN and asking a woman to be submissive when she is clearly the one to be President!! Don’t do it, Hillary! Run on your own… we are behind you! As a lifelong Democrat–I am ready to stand up for what is right –and it is time to vote Hillary for Independent (or not at all!)
Howard Dean–find another job!
Elliot said,
May 24, 2008 at 9:56 am
“As a life-long Democrat” what a liar and a troll you are. If you were a life-long Democrat you would vote for the Democratic nominee for president. Obama doesn’t need someone like Hillary Clinton on the ticket, nor does he need egotists like you.