06.02.08
Jaw-droppingly crazy polls from ARG: South Dakota, Montana
Seriously? Is this actually possible? This is what ARG shows for Montana and South Dakota:
ARG: South Dakota Primary 5/31-6/1, MoE +/-4%
Clinton: 60%
Obama: 34%
ARG: Montana Primary 5/31-6/1, MoE +/-4%
Clinton: 44%
Obama: 48%
The Montana result is improbable enough, but the South Dakota poll is either the most stunning upset of the entire election cycle, or the most bone-jarringly wrong poll in history. I’ve never seen a poll – even an ARG poll – this astronomically far away from the expectations going into a primary. I don’t even know what to say – I want to believe ARG is just a terrible pollster, but even if they were off by 20 points, it would still be a stunning upset. I give up! SUSA, Rasmussen, I beg you, save me from this insanity!!!
(From Elliot) If ARG is right, I will run outside butt-naked and scream “I’m a magic elf!”
(From Elliot) One other thing, why am I not surprised that Jerome prominently sports them on the front page of MyDD?
Elliot said,
June 2, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Well, I said that ARG was a crappy pollster, but even I never thought that they were THIS bad…
I’d seriously like to know who exactly they called in South Dakota anyways…
latina for obama said,
June 2, 2008 at 1:45 pm
elliot—will you be needing alcohol for that dance? I am sure you won’t have to but that was too funny.
Elliot said,
June 2, 2008 at 2:17 pm
I have a sneaking suspicion I’d need ALL the alcohol I could get at that point (for more than one reason)
Mark said,
June 2, 2008 at 2:54 pm
Funny, the whole arguments out of the Clinton camp the last 4 weeks has been that the demographics in MT should be more for her: more white, blue-collar workers with conservative tendencies similar to the rust belt.
ARG has missed the boat so much, it’s really hard to say. But if there is a poll to make the Obama voters want to get 100% turnout tomorrow, then I would say that ARG just did the trick.
Obama will win both states.
xstryker said,
June 2, 2008 at 3:01 pm
It’s easy for me to believe ARG is bat-s*** crazily wrong. What scares me is that they could be off by 20 points and still force Elliot to run around in his birthday suit.
I’m either going to deleriously enjoy savoring ARG’s worst poll ever (and dance on the grave of Dick Bennett’s career), or I’m going to be covered in “Jerome was right” shame. And the latter is so skin-crawlingly awful a prospect that I don’t want to make it any worse by shooting my mouth off, just in case.
4obama said,
June 2, 2008 at 7:32 pm
Thank you for pointing this out. I just saw the ARG poll a few moments ago and had the same reaction as you. I actually came here by accident looking for a more accurate SD poll, and here you have a post for ARG.
I was certain that Obama was in the lead due to this article http://www.topnews.in/usa/south-dakota-polls-obama-leads-clinton-2445
I hope ARG is proven wrong.
Ellen said,
June 2, 2008 at 8:57 pm
From AOL
Clinton Hints End as Obama Nears Win
Posted: 36 minutes ago
Filed Under: Elections News, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton
As Barack Obama pushes closer to victory, and on the eve of the final Democratic primaries, Bill Clinton suggests that the fight might be over for his wife. “This may be the last day I’m ever involved in a campaign of this kind,” he said as he campaigned for Hillary Clinton
dave said,
June 3, 2008 at 11:07 am
Im sure theres still a surprise or 2 left, and even you Obama freaks cant deny hes steadily lost support since March, her lopsided wins have outweighed his.
Why should she get pushed out? Situations like this are for the convention.
William H. said,
June 3, 2008 at 12:57 pm
2118+ = the end.
The moving goal posts have finally come to an end.
skywrnchsr509 said,
June 3, 2008 at 2:29 pm
Just so we can all enjoy, I have worked out a plan with Elliot that should he in fact have to run outside to yell that he’s a magic elf, I’ll be able to capture the whole thing on video.
xstryker said,
June 3, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Oh, Barack has lost support, has he? What about the fact that he leads Clinton by 5-15 points on every single national survey done in the past two weeks?