06.16.08
Latest Swing State Polls: Obama vs. McCain
Defense: States that John Kerry won
| State | Poll | Obama | McCain | Kerry | Bush |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut | Rasmussen 5/29 | 47 | 44 | 54 | 44 |
| Michigan | Rasmussen 6/9 | 45 | 42 | 51 | 48 |
| Minnesota | Rasmussen 6/11 | 52 | 39 | 51 | 48 |
| New Hampshire | Rasmussen 5/21 | 48 | 43 | 50 | 49 |
| New Jersey | Quinnipiac 6/5-6/8 | 45 | 39 | 53 | 46 |
| Oregon | Rasmussen 6/11 | 46 | 38 | 52 | 48 |
| Pennsylvania | Rasmussen 5/21 | 45 | 43 | 51 | 49 |
| Wisconsin | Rasmussen 6/5 | 45 | 43 | 50 | 49 |
As I said last week,
Note: The U. of Wisconsin poll has Obama up 50-37, but I found the question order to be a little biased. They ask for Bush’s approval rating before McCain’s and before Obama is matched against McCain.
They asked Obama’s favorables, then Bush’s favorables, then McCain’s favorables, then Obama vs. McCain. I find this order to be questionable.
I added New Jersey to the list, the siren state that lures Republican hopes and then dashes them against the rocks. The GOP always does about 5% worse than the polls would have them believe in New Jersey. Last week we had new polls in Minnesota, where Obama’s prior 5 point lead swells to 15, and Oregon, where the lead narrows slightly from 10 to 8. Connecticut and New Jersey are states where Obama leads by less than Kerry did, but neither state worries me at all.
Red-to-Blue: States that John Kerry lost where Obama is leading or tied
| State | Poll | Obama | McCain | Kerry | Bush |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | Rasmussen 5/19 | 48 | 42 | 47 | 52 |
| Iowa | Rasmussen 6/10 | 45 | 38 | 49 | 50 |
| Missouri | Rasmussen 6/3 | 43 | 42 | 46 | 53 |
| New Mexico | SUSA 5/16-5/18 | 44 | 44 | 49 | 50 |
| Ohio | SUSA 5/16-5/18 | 48 | 39 | 49 | 51 |
| Virginia | SUSA 5/16-5/18 | 49 | 42 | 48 | 51 |
No new polls here. As I said last time,
A Rasmussen New Mexico poll from around the same period has Obama up by 9. However, a Quinnipiac Ohio poll from in a similar timeframe has McCain up by 4. How OH and NM poll post-Clinton endorsement remains to be seen.
I expect to see new Rasmussen polls this week in New Mexico, Virginia, and Ohio; perhaps as soon as this afternoon.
Frontiers: States where Obama is close behind McCain
| State | Poll | Obama | McCain | Kerry | Bush |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | Quinnipiac 5/13-5/20 | 41 | 45 | 47 | 52 |
| Mississippi | Rasmussen 5/27 | 44 | 50 | 40 | 60 |
| Nevada | Mason-Dixon 6/9-6/11 | 42 | 44 | 48 | 51 |
| North Carolina | Rasmussen 6/10 | 43 | 45 | 44 | 56 |
| North Dakota | Dakota Wesleyan U. 3/24-4/3 | 38 | 44 | 36 | 63 |
I almost added Kansas to this section when a Cooper & Secrest poll showed Obama trailing by only 4, but today’s Rasmussen poll has Obama down by 10 there. The new poll here is Nevada, where Obama closes from 6 to 2. That officially means that Obama is polling better than Kerry’s results in all of these states. But as I said last time,
I don’t really trust the North Dakota poll.
No change in the Electoral Vote Count. If we assume Obama wins New Mexico, the Electoral Vote tally stands at Obama 317, McCain 221.
xstryker said,
June 16, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Cross-posted at MyDD and DailyKos.
xstryker said,
June 16, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Did I miss something? What happened to Al Giordano and The Field? The URL just redirects me to The Back Forty. Elliot? Latina?
Elliot said,
June 16, 2008 at 4:22 pm
He moved his page to Narco News:
http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/
I already updated it in our links area.
Vegas said,
July 10, 2008 at 5:21 pm
I hope Obama can win this election. I will be voting for him in November. We deseperately need a change. He’ll be fine. I don’t believe McCain can handle being president. I know he’s been around a long time, but that’s the problem. A vote for McCain is a vote for his VP, can’t do that! Obama is clearly the best man for the job!
Obama 08!!!
cameron said,
August 28, 2008 at 4:01 pm
i hope obama wins im from ohio and we need to push for him more in my state
Darron said,
October 7, 2008 at 9:37 am
Regardless of who wins, the US loses if we, the People, don’t get control of our tax and spend government. They should adhere to what the US Constitution states and defend us. The US people can and will take on the rest.
The first 4.5 hours of my working day is spent to pay for taxes to federal, state, county, city taxes – that’s 50%! I don’t need anymore of my work going to support a government that does not support me!
One question; do you think they would mind if on April 15, no one sent in there tax payments? Do you think we could get their attention then?
bryan said,
October 7, 2008 at 10:30 am
If your voting for obama you clearly dont have a grasp on this election. this is a very important election and actually neither is all that qualified but obama definately isnt. People need to stop voting for the man because he is black and dig more into the truth about this man. If he is elected god help our country. Less government more people
Elliot said,
October 7, 2008 at 10:54 am
Excuse me, I’d rather have a guy who knows how to keep a cool head (Obama) in a crisis than some guy who own erratic behavior (McCain) will probably lead us into nuclear war with Russia…
yemmy said,
October 7, 2008 at 3:07 pm
i think what we need now is a change, we dont need to fight the whole world to know that we are supper power, what McCain keep saying is fight with me, fight with me, and when we use all our resources to fight, what will be left for us is nothing, i was listening to Palin, when she said she was thinking of something else when she was given an out of point answer to a question asked about fioreign policy, can you imagin both McCain and palin are erratic i wonder why the two last letters of their names end with ‘in’
yemmy said,
October 7, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Obama is the man that can take us out of this mess we are in for McCain the war with the whole world has just stated. We dont want to loose more solders, Pleasssssssssssssssssssssssse.
BARBARA said,
October 10, 2008 at 11:36 pm
MESS OBAMA AND THE DEMOCRATES GOT US IN THIS MESS. MY TWO CHILDREN ARE SOLDIERS AND I WOULDN’T TRUST OBAMA WITH THEM
harry said said,
October 17, 2008 at 6:56 am
obama will bring your two children home and mccain will keep them there for a long long long time.
lyle said,
October 17, 2008 at 6:39 pm
America is very lucky to have such a bright good leadership team: Mr. Obama and Mr Biden. They will implement new directions and new policies for the good the USA and the whole world.Let look forward to a positive future. Best wishes to Mr. Obama and Mr. Biden and America.
Ly