07.31.08
Is getting a filibuster-proof Senate a realistic goal for Democrats?
Cross-posted at Swing-State Project
Before looking at whether or not the Democrats can expect to get the magic sixty, lets review the seats which have the potential to flip, starting from the ones most likely to flip to the ones least likely to flip (anything not listed here means that we consider the seats to be completely safe).
Solid Democratic (Pick-up)
- Virginia (Warner)
- New Mexico (Domenici)
-
Sununu (New Hampshire)
-
Landrieu (Lousiana)
-
Colorado (Allard)
-
Stevens (Alaska)
Leans Republican
-
Smith (Oregon)
-
Coleman (Minnesota)
-
Collins (Maine)
-
Wicker (Mississippi-B)
-
McConnell (Kentucky)
Likely Republican (Open Seat retention)
-
Idaho (Craig)
Possible Darkhorse Races (Republican Incumbent)
-
Dole (North Carolina)
-
Cornyn (Texas)
-
Inhofe (Oklahoma)
-
Roberts (Kansas)
First of all, I think we can safely assume that Democrats will win in New Mexico and Virginia, so we can start off with a net gain of two seats for the Democrats. So, to start off with in the second session, the Democrats are basically guaranteed to start from a vantage point of 50 seats. With the way the Leans Democratic races have been playing out (including the newly added AK-Sen), I’m pretty confident that the Democrats will win at least three and probably all four (Pollster shows Democrats leading by at least 5 points in Colorado, New Hampshire, and Alaska) and while it seems like it’s close in Louisiana, with the exception of Zogby, Landrieu has shown to have a consistent lead of no less than 3 points (with the most recent Rasmussen poll giving Landrieu a 5 point edge). So, we’ll give the Democrats three more seats and put them up to 53 seats (by the way, this doesn’t include Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman who caucus with the Democrats). Alright, so the score now should be at Democrats 53 guaranteed seats and Republicans with 34 guaranteed seats. Now then, let’s assume that Republicans win all of the seats which I consider to be either Likely or a potential Dark-horse (which, realistically, is more likely to happen than not), Republicans will have 38 seats (from now on, I’m going to consider Sanders to be a Democrat, for the purposes of voting, which gives the Democrats 54 seats and I’m going to consider Lieberman a wild-card as far as voting in concerned since, even though Lieberman has taken a more Conservative position on several issues, he is still considered to be more likely to support Democratic domestic agendas than Republican ones). So we have a score of 54-39-1, which means that for Democrats to win a filibuster-proof Senate which doesn’t rely on Lieberman, they’ll have to win 6 additional seats on top of the 5 which I’m projecting for them to win already, now how realistic a shot to Democrats have at this?
I believe that more likely than not, Democrats will win in Louisiana, so we’ll give the Democrats that extra seat which puts the score at 55-39-1 (5 undecided). I also think that Republicans should win in Kentucky. so the score now stands at 55-40-1 (4 undecided), which also basically eliminates any reasonable possibility of Democrats getting to the magic 60 number without Lieberman (which, might not be as bad as people think). So, that means that whether or not the Democrats can get to a filibuster proof senate rests on Minnesota, Maine, Oregon, and Mississippi-B. Mississippi-B and Oregon look to be within striking distance but Maine and Minnesota, seem to be moving away from us, so right now, I’d say that, at most, Democrats will probably end up with 57 seats (including Sanders) Republicans with 42 seats, and Joe Lieberman as a wild-card in the Senate.
Doesn’t look like we’re going to get our filibuster-proof majority this time around, but we’ll do well enough that it’s possible we can set 2010 up to get there.
AK-Sen: Begich leads Stevens by 13
A new poll released by Rasmussen shows Anchorage mayor Mark Begich leading the newly indicted Sen. Ted Stevens by 13 points (Begich 50, Stevens 37). Of course, on the off-chance that Stevens loses his primary (which, despite indictment, is not particularly likely) Begich is leading former State Rep. Dave Cuddy by 15 and Florida businessman Vic Vickers by 33 points. Even though this poll came out before I moved AK-Sen back to Leans Democratic (from toss-up), it only confirms what was obvious after the indictment was handed down, Democrats are more likely than not to get at least 55 senate seats this fall (counting Lieberman and Sanders as Democrats). Right now, Election Inspection projects that Democrats will hold 54-56 seats, Republicans will hold 42-44 seats and Independents will hold 2 seats (with at least one caucusing with the Democrats).
07.25.08
Obama’s overseas trip: what it does and doesn’t do
The overseas trip of Barack Obama has created a whirlwind of media hype, controversy, and a barrage of coverage that is having a controversy created of it. While progressive pundits, analyists and commentators have sat back, talked about the days events and watched as Obama wowed the world, conservatives have criticized the trip from the very beginning. This is an answer to their issues.
1. Conservatives complain that Obama is making an early victory lap. That claim is non-sense. Obama is simply putting the lie to rest that his lack of foreign policy experience is a detriment. As seen from the media coverage, Obama’s trips to Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, Jordan and now Germany have been very productive. Obama seems very comfortable meeting with not only our own American Generals, but with the heads of state of foreign countries. Standing before a crowd of over 200,000 people in Germany, Obama was cool, calm and collected. The sight of hundreads of thousands of Germans waving American flags is an inspiring sight as America will need its allies in its effort to defeat the terrorists. What Obama has proven thus far is that his lack of experience isn’t hurting him in the least as he talks with our international allies and that it is not America or its ideals that our allies can’t stand, it’s George W. Bush and his Republican allies and their strategies and methods. John McCain could never muster the kind of rally that Obama did and without the ability to do that, he will never muster the support of our allies to his stay the course we aren;t coming home until we win strategy. Of course, not knowing exactly what we have to do to win kinda hinders his efforts there.
2. Conservatives have complained that this trip is nothing more than political theatre. What it actually is is Obama showing conservatives how much the world hates their approach and them. America is slowly becoming isolated from the rest of the world. Tony Blair, once a rising star in Britian’s politics has not only been tarnished by the stain of George Bush, he has fallen completely out of favor and been replaced as Britian’s Prime Minister. The people of even our staunchest allies have thrown down the policies of Bush and co and would love to see a change in the form of Obama. McCain can be critical of Obama’s lack of experience all he wants. McCain’s form of experience is experience doing things the wrong way and that is a whole boatload of experience we can do without.
3. Obama was blasted for doing things backwards, stating his ideas on Iraq and Afghanistan before even making a fact finding mission there. Obama stated his opinions before hand and went over to find that the facts supported him. Iraq’s own Prime Minister has a plan that is very similar to Obama’s and opposes the plans of Bush and McCain in every way possible. Bush’s new “time horizon” is simply laughable. For someone who thinks withdrawal is surrender and defeat, Bush seems to be planning to accomplish that very thing. The matter is simple, Bush is simply trying to save himself from public ire by making plans he never intends to accomplish. Bush’s goal is for permanent bases in Iraq, similar to what we have in Germany. He forsees a future where we will never leave. John McCain sees this future too.
I find it simply amazing that people like Bush and McCain can say how great things are in Iraq yet when we talk about bringing troops home because things are so great, they immediately claim that trouble would brew if we did that. Which is it? Are things great, or is there so much trouble just below the surface that it takes over 100,000 American troops to keep things calm. Thats not even counting the thousand of other foreign nations troops that remain in Iraq, or the Iraqi police or military. Are things in the country that bad? If it takes that many troops just to keep violence down in Iraq, they must be. Imagine what level of crime and violence would have to occur in a place like California (Iraq is slightly larger than California area wise but has a lower population) before we would place that many troops and police officers out to patrol the state. There would have to be an outright REBELLION! You simply can’t convince me that Iraq is anywhere near great, nor is it even good or just ok if we can’t start bringing some troops home right now.
4. Conservatives continue to attempt to hammer Obama over his claim that the surge has failed. While it is true that security has improved, the surge is only a piece of that puzzle. Despite the unfact that John McCain attempts to claim that the surge was the reason the Anbar Awakening happened, things such as the awakening and the Iraqi governments decision to go after Shiite Militia’s also played a part in security improvements. Emmigration did too. It is clear in many place in Iraq that ethnic groups have moved around and begun to consolidate in areas thus reducing ethnic violence. The economic and political efforts behind the surge however, have not come to fruition. Iraq’s economy is still a shambles and America still pays for the reconstruction efforts despite claims by Bush that Iraqi oil revenues will begin to do so. Political reconciliation in Iraq has been slow to come about and since the main purpose of the surge was to give the Iraqi government space to accomplish this reconciliation, the surge itself, while militarily successful, is still a failure due to the inability of Iraqi politicians to get their country in order.
5. Conservative smash Obama over his withdrawal plans. Their claims of surrender, defeat and failure are nothing more than scare tactics. The Iraqi government has proposed its own ideas about a timeline for withdrawl of not only american forces, but all foreign troops. The Bush-McCain strategy of stay until we feel like it will only work to kill the American military. Especially when you consider the fact that McCain proposes the same kind of surge in Afghanistan. The question then becomes, where do these additional troops come from? Many of our troops are already going back to these countries for the 4th or 5th time. This coutry is already dangerously low on troops here at home, I don’t want to see what would happen if we conducted another surge of troops. The military would be on my door step taking me back to my unit despite my physical limitations and the fact that I’ve been off drill status for months. For the mcCain plan to succeed, a draft would have to be institued. There is simply no other way. The only other option, is to allow Afghanistan to languish with too few troops, allowing the Taliban to possibly win, while we drag out in Iraq. Only by beginning to withdraw from Iraq, will we have the troops necessary to fight the real war on terror. The war in Afghanistan.
I’ll continue to allow the conservatives to make folls of themselves and continue to discuss it here as it happens. In the meantime, progressive activists should be promoting the fact that our allies will be much more willing to work with Obama and using the images of the large crowd waving American flags in Germany to prove this point.
07.23.08
Election Inspection’s House Race Rankings
For the first time this year, EI will be releasing its latest House projections. I’ll be keeping these updated right up through election Day and will have a page up for them in short order. * seats are takeovers
Likely Democratic.
Harry Mitchell AZ 5
Gabby Giffords AZ 8
Christopher Murphy CT 5
John Barrow GA 12
Joseph Donnelly IN 2
Bill Foster IL 14
Dennis Moore KS 3
Open Seat (Hooley) OR 5
Jason Altmire PA 4
Paul Kanjorski PA 11
Ciro Rodriguez TX 23
Lean Democrat
Open Seat (Cramer) AL 5
Jerry McNerney CA 11
Tim Mahoney FL 16
Open Seat (Weller) IL 11 *
Baron Hill IN 9
John Yarmuth KY 3
Travis Childers MS 1
Carol Shea Porter NH 2
Open Seat (Fossella) NY 13 *
Kirsten Gillbrand NY 20
Open Seat (Walsh) NY 25 *
Chris Carney PA 10
Open Seat (Davis) VA 11 *
Steve Kagen WI 8
Democratic Toss ups
Nancy Boyda KS 2
Don Cazayoux LA 6
Nick Lampson TX 22
Republican Toss Ups
Open Seat (Everett) AL 2
Don Young AK AL
Open Seat (Renzi) AZ 1
Open Seat Doolittle) CA 4
Marilyn Musgrave CO 4
Christopher Shays CT 4
Vern Buchanon FL 13
Mark Kirk IL 10
Open Seat (McCrery LA 4
Tim Walberg MI 7
Open Seat (Ramstad) MN 3
Jon Porter NV 3
Open Seat (Saxton) NJ 3
Open Seat (Fergeson) NJ 7
Open Seat (Wilson) NM 1
Open Seat (Reynolds) NY 26
Randy Kuhl NY 29
Robin Hayes NC 8
Steve Chabot OH 1
Open Seat (Pryce) OH 15
Open Seat (Regula) OH 16
Dave Reichert WA 8
Lean Republican
John Shadegg AZ 3
Ric Keller FL 8
Illeana Ros-Lehtinen FL 18
Licoln Diaz Balart FL 21
Tom Feeney FL 24
Mario Diaz Balart FL 25
Open Seat (Gilchrest) MD 1
Joe Knollenberg MI 9
Sam Graves MO 6
Open Seat (Pearce) NM 2
Jean Schmidt OH 2
Phil English PA 3
Thelma Drake VA 2
Shelley Moore Capito WV 2
Likely Republican
Mike Rogers AL 1
Dan Lungren CA 3
David Drier CA 26
Jerry Lewis CA 41
Mary Bono Mack CA 45
Dana Rohrobacher CA 46
Brian Bilbray CA 50
Open Seat (Hunter) CA 52
Doug Lamborn CO 5
Gus Bilirakis FL 9
Bill Sali ID 1
Peter Roskam IL 6
Judy Biggert IL 13
Open Seat (LaHood) IL 18
Mark Souder IN 3
Tom Latham IA 4
Open Seat (Lewis) KY 2
Charles Boustany LA 7
John Kline MN 2
Michele Bachmann MN 6
Open Seat (Hulshof) MO 9
Lee Terry NE 2
Dean Heller NV 2
Christopher Smith (NJ 4
Scott Garrett NJ 5
Patrick McHenry NC 10
Open Seat (Hobson) OH 7
Steve LaTourette OH 14
Open Seat (Peterson) PA 5
Jim Gerlach PA 6
Charlie Dent PA 15
Tim Murphy PA 18
John Culberson TX 7
Michael McCaul TX 10
Virgil Goode VA 5
Frank Wolf VA 10
Open Seat (Cubin) WY AL
My watch list
Bill Young Florida 10 Bob Hackworth
Open Seat (Weldon) Florida 15 Paul Rancatore
Don Manzullo Illinois 16 Robert Abboud
Stephen Buyer Indiana 4 Nels Ackerson
Frank LoBiondo New Jersey 2 Frank Kurkowski
Mike Turner Ohio 3 Jane Mitakides
Henry Brown South Carlona 1 Linda Ketner
Addison Wilson South Carolina 2 Rob Miller
Robert Goodlatte Virginia 6 Sam Rasoul
07.21.08
NY-13 Update
XStryker has been complaining that he’s been left all alone here. So figure I owe it to him to write something. I haven’t touched this subject in awhile just simply because it has been covered very thoroughly and ably by a number of other excellent blogs such as The Albany Project, NY13, and Swing State Project. It also is a race where almost anything you say will quickly become outdated. An example being the number of signatures candidates which until recently were based on what the candidates claimed more than anything else.
I’ll start with the Republican side.
What a wild ride it has been. From everyone declining to run to Frank Powers tragic death. Recently the Republican Party endorsed former South Shore State Assemblyman Robert Straniere. This is after they gave the cold shoulder to the more popular and far more politically astute Matthew Mirones remembering his failure to oppose Robert Straniere.
But the problems that some local Republicans, including those who belong to the camp of de-facto head party head Fossella have or had with Mirones, go deeper than that.
Mirones, for example, didn’t take sides in the 2004 GOP South Shore Assembly primary that pitted Vinny Ignizio against Assemblyman Bob Straniere and Mario Bruno.
http://www.silive.com/columnists/wrob/index.ssf?/base/opinion/1214734517127610.xml&coll=1
Not that the selection of Straniere represents that the Republican Party is ready to forgive and forget.
But not everybody is jumping on the Straniere bandwagon. City Councilman Vincent Ignizio and Assemblyman Lou Tobacco, both South Shore Republicans, have each said that they won’t support Straniere’s bid.
Former GOP Borough President Guy Molinari, a longtime political foe of Straniere’s, has said the GOP “couldn’t have made a worse mistake” than picking Straniere.
City Councilman James Oddo (R-Mid-Island/Brooklyn) wasn’t quite that definitive today, but said, “I’m not at the point where I’m ready to support him. I don’t lend my name easily.”
And unlike state Sen. Andrew Lanza (R-Staten Island), Oddo would not guarantee that he would support the eventual GOP candidate. Straniere is set to battle Dr. Jamshad Wyne in a party primary.
“My thought process may not take me there,” Oddo said.
http://www.silive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/07/bet_the_house_says_straniere.html
Of course all this is contingent on Straniere getting on the ballot.
Straniere’s endorsement hinges on whether the 2,000 or so signatures that the GOP collected on Powers’ behalf pass muster and can in effect be transferred to Straniere. Island Democrats have filed general objections to the signatures.
If they find serious flaws with the signatures, Democrats could file specific objections within the next few days, which would lead to a more formal vetting process for the petitions.
http://www.silive.com/news/advance/index.ssf?/base/news/1216122773301540.xml&coll=1&thispage=3
Robert Straniere still face Jamshad Wyne in a primary. As for the two other candidates. They were not granted a Wilson-Pakula waiver and are knocked out of the GOP primary.
Time has passed to give written authorization to non-party candidates to run in the GOP primary, leaving Morano and Atanasio shut out of that contest.
http://www.silive.com/news/advance/index.ssf?/base/news/1216122773301540.xml&coll=1&thispage=4
But these two erstwhile Republican candidates share two things in common. One they would’ve probably been far more popular choices for the GOP and two they will still remain on the ballot in the general election as Conservative and Independence Party candidates that Republicans can vote for in the general.
In short the Republicans are doing their darndest to gift this seat to the Democrats. But before we get ahead of ourselves let us remember a few things. The Democratic Party was very lucky that none of the Republican first or second tier got in. Neither McMahon or Harrison would not necessarily have been favored against either Oddo or Donovan. And more importantly it is still early and while both Republicans have their flaws they also bring their own merits. Jamshad Wyne brings a compelling life story as a doctor and enterpreneur and would never have become Staten Island GOP finance Chair without some expertise in fundraising. Few other Republicans besides Robert Straniere can better separate himself from the tarnished GOP label and Republican leadership after he was essentially purged from the Republican Party.
That is perhaps looking at the glass as 1/10th empty rather than 9/10ths full but when looking at a seat that hasn’t been in Democratic hands in somewhere around three decades it is better not to count your chickens before they hatch.
And for the Democratic side. Yes despite rumors to the contrary there is a race.
DCCC draftee Michael McMahon got in the race after the withdrawl of Vito Fossella and secured the support of the Democratic Party in both Staten Island and Brooklyn. In functional terms the only thing this support meant is that they’d provide help in gathering petitions for Mike McMahon. This endorsement allowed Mike to get in late and fundraise without worrying about getting on the ballot. Steve Harrison also got support from many of the local Democratic clubs.
The primary is going to be a hard fought and extremely low turnout. This means the outcome will hinge on organizational strength. This is not to say that Mike McMahon is not the clear favorite. He is. But the Harrison people have been organizing since the end of the 2006 election and should have a good volunteer base. The McMahon people are not sleeping despite only have it’s campaign staff in place since the start of the month. McMahon’s new campaign director Chris Miller formerly was formerly a field director in the Obama campaign and seems like an excellent hire for the type of campaign that will be waged. McMahon being the party establishment choice will have the help of the internal party structures and has already garnered some labor endorsements.
Steve Harrison is running as the progressive while Mike McMahon is looking more towards the general election and running as a moderate. However a big question for some voters such as myself is while Mike McMahon’s general themes and have been fine they are still short on details. Until we hear where he stands on issues like FISA it just isn’t possible to properly evaluate him and make a final decision.
The Harrison folks are trying to paint Mike McMahon as a conservative who will be a Republican lite. The McMahon folks are trying to paint Steve Harrison as unelectable. Neither representation is true. In this environment against this Republican field Steve Harrison is certainly electable. And McMahon a former Dean supporter certainly is no Vito Fossella clone.
I’m planning on getting interviews with both candidates to help give everyone a better sense of who the candidates are.
07.20.08
Who will McCain pick as his running mate?
The Obama list can be found here
I promised that I’d post something on who McCain is likely to pick for his running mate, so here I am making good on that promise. Like I said in the Obama VP guide, this is not an exercise in who McCain SHOULD pick for his running mate (since I’m obviously a partisan Obama supporter, my top three choices are George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, and Jack Abramoff, heh). This was both a bit easier and bit harder for me than Obama’s was. On the one hand Obama had quite a few people I could very easily see him putting on a short list for VP and a bunch of dark-horse choices. On the other hand, the reason why I could see that is because I have a pretty good idea of what Obama is looking for (and in Obama’s case, despite what so many cable organizations want to show, there isn’t wide-spread disappointment with him among core Democratic groups), McCain, on the other hand, does show signs of tepid support among his own base. McCain has to worry about not alienating the many facets of the right-wing when he selects his running mate. As I said above, this is not a list of people I think McCain should choose but a list of people I believe McCain will choose:
Short-List
- Gov. Tim Pawlenty (MN)
- Gov. Charlie Crist (FL)
- Fmr Gov. Mitt Romney (MA)
Dark-horse
- Fmr Gov. Mike Huckabee (AR)
- Gov. Mark Sanford (SC)
- Gov. Bobby Jindal (LA)
- Rep. Tom Davis (VA)
One thing which stands out about this list is how small it is compared to what I put for Obama’s list, and the reason for that is that I just don’t see McCain having that many people he is seriously considering for the VP spot (as compared to what Obama is doing). I was actually considering Pawlenty to be the frontrunner for VP for a while, but after hearing a few very interesting tid-bits, I’m beginning to think that Romney has a pretty decent shot (in fact, originally I considered Romney a dark-horse pick, which was conceivable but not likely). I’ll add one more reason that McCain and his people might have Romney as being high on the list, he’s not holding an office right now, McCain isn’t particularly popular with the Republican party people, by choosing Romney he doesn’t risk losing any state’s governor’s mansion or Senate seat (or House seat, as I have listed Davis, who is retiring this year, as a dark-horse choice). I’m still thinking that McCain will choose Pawlenty or Crist, but I’m no longer going to be surprised if he choose Romney.
07.15.08
Obama Now Leads In a Majority of States
Safe: States won by John Kerry by more than 7 points where Obama leads by more than 5 points – 168 Electoral Votes in 12 states (plus DC)
California (+24), Connecticut (+22), Delaware (+9), Hawaii (+30), Illinois (+9), Maine (+11), Maryland (+14), Massachusetts (+20), New York (+13), Rhode Island (+24), Vermont (+34), Washington (+8), DC
Thanks to recent polls in Connecticut we can drop the silly idea that McCain is even remotely competitive there.
Defense: States that John Kerry won by less than 7 points – 84 Electoral Votes in 7 states
| State | Poll | Obama | McCain | Kerry | Bush |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | Rasmussen 7/10 | 50 | 42 | 51 | 48 |
| Minnesota | Rasmussen 7/10 | 54 | 37 | 51 | 48 |
| New Hampshire | Rasmussen 6/18 | 50 | 39 | 50 | 49 |
| New Jersey | Rasmussen 7/7 | 44 | 39 | 53 | 47 |
| Oregon | SUSA 6/17-6/19 | 48 | 45 | 52 | 48 |
| Pennsylvania | Rasmussen 6/19 & 6/22 | 46 | 42 | 51 | 49 |
| Wisconsin | Rasmussen 7/8 | 52 | 42 | 50 | 49 |
The Michigan poll shows a 5 point gain from Rasmussen’s June survey. It also shows a slight gain over June’s Quinnipiac (+6) and PPP (+9) surveys, both of which were better than May’s numbers. It looks like unity has taken hold here and the divisive fight over Michigan’s delegation to the Democratic Convention has been quickly forgotten. In Minnesota, Obama gains 6 from the prior Rasmussen survey; Rasmussen and Quinnipiac now both show +17, so never mind SUSA’s absurd June poll showing +1 which I’ve dissected earlier. The Obama campaign isn’t even bothering to advertise here. The New Hampshire result (matching ARG’s June +12) strongly suggests McCain should give up the Northeast entirely. However, Rasmussen’s New Jersey poll shows a 5 point race, closer than Rasmussen’s prior +9 and matching June’s Quinnipiac poll showing +6 (never mind the Fairleigh Dickinson/PublicMind poll – when in doubt, go with the bigger better pollsters). As I and many other have said previously, polls showing a “close” race in New Jersey often contrast with what usually happens in November – Democrats perform considerably better than expected. For the GOP, New Jersey is a constant source of false hope.
As I said previously about Oregon:
The Oregon poll is weird too, also showing the race far closer than any other poll has. In that one, SUSA didn’t even bother to show crosstabs by age, and after the Minnesota poll, that casts this poll very heavily into suspicion as well. The 6/11 Rasmussen poll from Oregon has Obama up by 8, which is very much in line with other polls done here.
There’s a big contrast in Pennsylvania between Rasmussen’s +4 and Quinnipiac’s +12, both of which show Obama’s lead doubling from May’s results. I’d call this +8 for now. In Wisconsin, Rasmussen shows an 8 point gain from June, and the 10 point lead matches up with Quinnipiac (+13), SUSA (+9), and U. of Wisconsin (+13).
Conclusion: Obama’s defense is very strong – I wouldn’t worry about New Jersey, the only state in this column where Obama is underpolling Kerry. 252 Electoral Votes so far.
Red-to-Blue: States that John Kerry lost where Obama is leading or tied – 106 Electoral Votes in 9 states
| State | Poll | Obama | McCain | Kerry | Bush |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | Quinnipiac 6/17-6/24 | 49 | 44 | 47 | 52 |
| Florida | War Room Logistics 7/7-7/8 | 47.2 | 44.5 | 47 | 52 |
| Indiana | SUSA 6/21-6/23 | 48 | 47 | 39 | 60 |
| Iowa | Rasmussen 7/10 | 51 | 41 | 49 | 50 |
| Missouri | Research 2000 7/7-7/10 | 48 | 43 | 46 | 53 |
| Montana | Rasmussen 7/1 | 48 | 43 | 39 | 59 |
| New Mexico | Rasmussen 6/18 | 47 | 39 | 49 | 50 |
| Ohio | SUSA 6/20-6/22 | 48 | 46 | 49 | 51 |
| Virginia | SUSA 6/20-6/22 | 49 | 47 | 48 | 51 |
Hello Indiana! Hello Montana! Glad to see you here! With these new polls, Obama is apparently leading in every state along the northern boder except for North Dakota and Idaho, and as we’ll see in the next section, North Dakota is nearly tied. Though Bush won these states by a huge 3:2 margin in 2004, both states moved leftwards in 2006 with the election of Senator Tester in Montana (joining fellow Democrats Senator Baucus and Governor Schweitzer) and Representatives Donnelly, Ellsworth, and Hill (joining Democratic Senator Bayh and splitting Indiana’s 9 congressional seats to a 5:4 Democratic majority). Remember, Indiana borders Illinois, and Montana (according to one study) is the 7th smartest state in the nation.
In Colorado, Quinnipiac has Obama up by 5, with a more recent (partisan) PPP at +4 and Rasmussen at +2 (down 4 points from May). It’s good to see pollsters other than Rasmussen finally recognizing the need to poll Colorado as a swing state, seeing as how Rasmussen has shown Obama leading in this “red” state for months.
Rasmussen has Obama up by 10 in Iowa, a 3 point improvement from the prior month and 6 points better than the questionable June SUSA poll which was conducted in the middle of the flooding. In New Mexico, Rasmussen’s +8 is tempered by SUSA’s +3, similar to last month when Rasmussen has Obama up 9 and SUSA had the race tied. Something is not right here; Rasmussen has Obama leading by 7 with men, while SUSA has him trailing by 24. For women, Rasmussen shows Obama at +11, and SUSA at +30; these polls were taken at roughly the same time. Given SUSA absurd 54-point gender split, I’m inclined to trust Rasmussen on this one.
A new Research 2000 poll in Missouri has Obama up by 5, but it runs against the current set by Rasmussen (McCain by 5), PPP (McCain by 3), and SUSA (McCain by 7). I’m more inclined to trust the Rasmussen poll until I see another poll suggest that Obama is ahead here. Florida is weirder – there’s been a lot of questionable polls here and it’s hard to cut through to the truth. The latest poll is from War Room Logistics (O+2.7), a tiny outfit I’ve never heard of. Before that was Zogby Interactive (Mc+4), an internet poll that no one in the universe trusts. Next was PPP (O+2), a partisan firm for Democrats, which came out right alongside Strategic Vision (Mc+8), a partisan firm for the GOP. Then there were Rasmussen polls in 2 consecutive weeks (Mc+7, Mc+8 ) – a firm I can take more seriously. And the first 2 June polls were the laughably bad ARG (O+5) and the more reliable Quinnipiac (O+4). We might as well just average them all together and say that McCain is probably leading by a point or two. Quinnipiac should be releasing a new poll here soon that will give us a clearer picture. But seriously, if McCain loses Florida, he’s pretty much toast.
June’s Ohio results are +2 (SUSA), -1 (Rasmussen), +6 (Quinnipiac), and +11 (PPP). Discarding PPP, we can take SUSA as the midpoint between Quinnipiac and Rasmussen, suggesting a very slight lead for Obama here. Just like last cycle, Ohio is the biggest battleground; unlike last time, there are lots of other battleground states, too, making an Ohio loss easier to survive. In Virginia, all 3 polls in June show Obama leading by 1 or 2 points, another major batteground.
Conclusion: Obama needs 18 electoral votes from this section, which he could get with just Ohio (20EV) or Florida (27EV). He is currently pulling in 106 electoral votes here (according to the last nonpartisan poll in each), meaning he could win just by pulling in Iowa (7EV), New Mexico (5EV), and Colorado (9EV). Substitute any of those 3 for Indiana, Missouri, Virginia, Ohio or Florida, and you have an even larger victory. He could also substitute Montana for New Mexico and still win. In other words, Obama has considerable flexibilty in his victory margin, despite the fact that these states are all very close. Obama leads in 28 states total plus DC.
Frontiers: States where Obama is close behind McCain – 84 Electoral Votes in 8 states
| State | Poll | Obama | McCain | Kerry | Bush |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Rasmussen 6/16 | 41 | 45 | 36 | 61 |
| Georgia | InsiderAdvantage 7/2 | 44 | 46 | 41 | 58 |
| Mississippi | Rasmussen 6/24 | 44 | 50 | 40 | 60 |
| Nevada | Rasmussen 6/18 | 42 | 45 | 48 | 51 |
| North Carolina | Rasmussen 6/10 | 43 | 45 | 44 | 56 |
| North Dakota | Rasmussen 7/8 | 46 | 47 | 36 | 63 |
| South Dakota | Rasmussen 7/9 | 43 | 47 | 38 | 60 |
| Texas | Texas Lyceum 6/12-6/24 | 38 | 43 | 36 | 63 |
Georgia’s still on the list, but InsiderAdvantage still sucks, having blown pretty much every Southern state this cycle. Rasmussen has McCain up by 10, and Strategic Vision (R) by 8, both considerably more credible than InsiderAdvantage. Far more intriguing are Rasmussen’s new North and South Dakota polls. To me, they confirm what SUSA said about these states back in February (ND: O+4, SD: Mc+4). On the other hand, I don’t trust the Texas Lyceum poll (Mc+5), nor the more recent Zogby Interactive poll (Mc+3) in Texas, for the same reasons I mentioned when discussing Florida; Zogby’s internet polls are a joke and Texas Lyceum I’ve never heard of. Rasmussen pegged this race at McCain +13 in June, and I’m not going to believe otherwise until a more prominent pollster says so.
Rasmussen’s Nevada poll shows a 3-point McCain lead, matching Mason-Dixon’s 2 point gap. Rasmussen’s North Carolina poll favors McCain by 2, while more recent partisan polls from Civitas (R) and PPP (D) both show McCain up by 4. My policy is to display on these posts the most recent nonpartisan poll.
In Alaska. Rasmussen’s June poll pegs McCain’s lead at 4 points, an improvement over May polls from Rasmussen and Research 2000 showing leads of 9 and 7 respectively. Like North Dakota and South Dakota, a little effort goes a long way in these oft-neglected states. Nothing new to report in Mississippi; Rasmussen shows the same 6 point McCain lead in June that they had in May.
Conclusion: New states keep getting added to this category. That’s the 50-state strategy at work, and it’s throwing McCain for a loop. Other than Nevada, a win by Obama in any of these very red states would be a huge psychological defeat for the GOP. Obama is now competitive or leading in 36 states plus DC.
The Horizon: States where McCain leads comfortably… for now – 96 Electoral Votes in 14 states
Alabama (-12.4), Arizona (-9), Arkansas (-9), Idaho (-13), Kansas (-10), Kentucky (-16), Louisiana (-19), Nebraska (-16), Oklahoma (-14), South Carolina (-9), Tennessee (-15), Utah (-19), West Virginia (-8), Wyoming (-13)
An intriguing poll came out in South Carolina today from partisan pollster PPP showing McCain leading by only 6. If a nonpartisan poll confirms that, this section would shrink by yet another state, joining once Solid GOP stalwarts like Alaska, Indiana, Montana, and the Dakotas. By the way, I find it fascinating (and deeply disturbing) that thanks to the depopulation of New Orleans, Louisiana is tied with Utah for the title of Safest GOP State – and Mary Landrieu still leads for Senate, not to mention the House seat picked up by Don Cazayoux.
If the latest nonpartisan polls all hold true, the Electoral Vote tally stands at Obama 358, McCain 180. That would mean Obama would win the Electoral college by a nearly 2:1 margin. In 1996, Bill Clinton won 379 electoral votes to Bob Dole’s 159. In 1992, Clinton defeated Bush Sr. by 370 to 168.
