Before someone jumps on me over this, I’m not accusing Charlie Cook of being biased in favor of McCain, I don’t believe that Charlie Cook is a partisan (at least in his analysis), but I do believe that Cook has a nasty habit of over-emphasizing the past in deciding whether or not a state should be considered competitive. What makes me think that? Well take a look at Cook’s presidential forecast and you’ll find the following tid-bits:

According to Cook, these states are true toss-ups: Pennsylvania, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada, and Colorado

These states are Republican-leaning: Arkansas, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida

Under Cook’s analysis, McCain has 240 electoral votes, Obama has 219 electoral votes, and 79 electoral votes are considered toss-ups.

Now, even though the polling in Ohio has been largely in Obama’s favor, I don’t necessarily have a problem with Cook calling it a toss-up, primarily because the most recent polling shows it being less in Obama’s direction. What I do have a problem with is Cook’s placement of Arkansas (where the most recent poll still gave McCain a 9-point lead); Pennsylvania (where Pollster.com’s composite gives Obama a solid 8-point lead); Iowa (where Pollster gives Obama a 5-point lead); and Virginia (which Pollster shows Obama leading by a point and a half). If Pennsylvania and Iowa are toss-ups, then it should follow that Florida, where Pollster shows McCain only leading by 3-points, should also be considered a toss-up. Also, since Obama does have a slight edge in Virginia, saying that McCain is even a slight favorite to win it just doesn’t make much sense.

So, where should those states be? Well Arkansas is just not a Leans Republican, it’s a likely Republican state (no change to the electoral map); Virginia should be moved from Leans Republican to toss-up (-13 McCain +13 toss-up; McCain 227, Obama 219, Toss-up 92); Pennsylvania should move from toss-up to Leans Democratic (+21 Obama -21 toss-up; Obama 230, McCain 227, toss-up 71); and Iowa should be moved from toss-up to Leans Democratic (+7 Obama -7 toss-up; Obama 237, McCain 227, toss-up 64). This all assumes that we don’t move Florida to toss-up, Ohio to Leans Democratic, Montana to toss-up (which Rasmussen’s poll would certainly give us at least some justification for), and Colorado to Leans Democratic (which polling would certainly justify); if we did all of that, the numbers would be Obama 266, McCain 197, and toss-up 65. I don’t necessarily dislike Charlie Cook, and I can disagree with some of his placements without it necessarily being illogical (for example, Ohio) but some things are just a bit too much.