09.28.08

What would “blow-outs” look like?

Posted in Uncategorized tagged , , , , , at 6:24 pm by Elliot

I’ve already posted my first electoral college projections, but my projections tend to assume that the election will be within 2-3 points at the end. But what if the election isn’t all that close? What would larger victories look like? Remember, thanks to the way the electoral college is set up, what would seem like a relatively close result will look pretty lopsided in the electoral college. To put this in perspective, here is what a five point popular vote win for Obama would look like:

This may seem incredibly lopsided, but except for Montana, North Dakota and (maybe) Missouri, there isn’t anything here that should seem all that unusual (I think Indiana really is closer than Missouri, so I don’t have any doubts about that, at least). Now, it might seem that Missouri is a stretch, especially when you see that Pollster’s average for Missouri are about 8 points behind the national average, but Missouri hasn’t been polled nearly as often as the national numbers, and the two most recent polls from (Survey USA and Research 2000) which means that Missouri is probably closer to 5-6 points behind the national numbers. But even assuming that North Dakota, Montana, and Missouri wouldn’t not be a part of this, the number would be 365 to 173, which would still be 68%-32% in the electoral college.

Now, let’s look at what a McCain win by 5 points looks like:

It’s a testament to Obama’s strength in several states that makes this seem less lopsided than the other way around, but even still, this is a 61%-39% electoral college thumping.

That may seem really lopsided, but what about eight-point margins? First let’s see Obama’s:

This might seem really screwy, but if you look at the last eight point margin of victory, this is about what happened. A mere 8-point margin basically means an 81%-19% electoral college ass-kicking, and even with a few quibbles, it is very unlikely that the margin would be any less than 300 (and this map still doesn’t recognize that Obama would have a fighting chance at winning Texas, Kansas, or even Kentucky).

Well, in any case, here’s what an 8-point McCain margin would probably look like:

Thanks to Democratic strength in states like California, New York, and Illinois (alone these three states are worth 107 electoral votes, which is already 4 votes higher than what McCain’s margin would likely be when he’s on the losing end). Now, even though California would probably close quite a bit, it still voted 13 points more Democratic than the country as a whole back in 2004, so while it would tighten up, Obama would still probably win by a few points. Still, this is a 71%-29% electoral college margin you’re seeing, so even though it wouldn’t be quite as lop-sided for McCain as it would be for Obama, it is still pretty goddamned lop-sided.

EDIT/UPDATE: Just to be clear, the reason I post this is not to presume that there will be a blow-out, or that both sides have an equal chance of one (I tend to agree with Nate Silver’s analysis that Obama has a roughly 1-in-4 chance of winning the election with over 375 electoral votes while McCain has next to no chance) this is more to show that if one candidate is winning the popular vote by 4-5 points, it becomes almost impossible for the other side to win the electoral college (remember that in 2000 Gore only won the popular vote by half a percentage point, not that I don’t have major misgivings about the 2000 election, but this is just to give a bit of perspective). We’ll know relatively early whether or not this is going to be a blow-out, really tight, or something in-between relatively early (Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina should tell us a lot about whether or not the election will be close and who will be on the winning end if it’s going to be a blow-out).

09.25.08

McCain planning to skip the debate

Posted in commentary tagged , , at 5:09 pm by xstryker

I predict his next stunt will be to skip the election entirely.

Yes, I think McCain/Bush might actually cancel the election – or at least I wouldn’t put it past them. A friend of mine said it in 2004 – “if Bush wins this election, there won’t be another in 2008.”

DE-GOV: Markell Crushing Lee

Posted in Delaware, General election poll, governors, poll result tagged , , , , , , , , , , at 8:38 am by xstryker

A little home state news today – there’s FINALLY a poll of the Governor’s race in Delaware!

SurveyUSA 9/22-9/23, MoE 3.6%, N=703 LV

Jack Markell (D) 64%
Bill Lee (R) 29%

This domination extends to both genders, every age group (even winning 55+ voters 61%-34%), whites as well as blacks, regular churchgoers, upper and lower income tiers, and college grads and non-grads. Markell even has a 4% lead with gun owners. This must be what Dave Burris meant when he said, “the people are not where I need them to be“. Face it, Billee Boy, you are toast.

The party composition of the sample was 48% Democrat, 34% Republican, and 17% Independent. SUSA also found that Delaware supports Obama over McCain by margin of 57% to 37%, and that Senator Biden leads Christine O’Donnell for re-election to his Senate seat by 64% to 32%. That means as things stand today, Jason Scott would likely win that bet he made with Dave Burris that Biden’s vote total for senate would be more than the combined total of Lee’s votes for Governor and Republican Charlie Copeland’s votes for Lt. Governor, unless Copeland is performing significantly better than Lee.

09.23.08

Initial Projection of the Electoral College

Posted in Electoral College Projection, analysis, commentary tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , at 2:38 pm by Elliot

Alright, it’s been a wild and crazy week with the stock market and Obama’s surge in the polls, but now is the time to take a good look at the electoral college and where it will go. A few things to get out of the way first: even though Obama has opened up a nice lead, and while I believe that part of this was an evaporation of McCain’s convention (and VP) bounce, some of this may very well an initial reaction to the economic crisis which has happened this week (meaning that while Obama is likely in the lead, it is more likely that these polls right now are overstating this lead by a couple points) so while I am definitely taking into account state and national polling, I’m also sort of assuming that these numbers might be slightly inflated (and no, I don’t subscribe to the Bradley Effect, so if you ask me about it, I’ll simply refer you to this page).

So, let’s get down to the nitty-gritty:

Map One: The Battlegrounds (All states in grey are either toss-ups or leaning towards Obama or McCain)

Notes on the map: This map represents the likely battleground for the 2008 elections when not factoring in where states are leaning. A few things to note are the fact that some major 2004 battlegrounds (New Mexico and Iowa) are seen as being safe for Obama and some states that really weren’t competitive in 2004 (North Carolina, North Dakota, Indiana, Montana, and Virginia) are being seen as potential battlegrounds (by the way, while I do have the possibility of Obama pulling an upset in North Dakota, this is a pretty big stretch, in the next version of the electoral college map, I’ll probably add it to McCain’s numbers, but even so it’s really only a difference of three electoral votes from “toss-up/lean” to “McCain” which here is pretty meaningless anyways). I’d also like to add that while West Virginia seems to be a potential pick-up opportunity, the fact that Obama never really invested in a ground game there and his own inherent weakness in the Appalachia region really don’t lead me to believe West Virginia will be all that competitive.

Map Two: the Toss-ups (all states in grey are what I consider to be pure toss-ups)

Notes on the map: I want to say right now that I’m very close to considering Colorado a Leans Obama state (based on the Quinnipiac and PPP polls) but I’m still going to hedge a bit and call Colorado a “toss-up”, but this will probably change in my next version. The other controversial things on this map are probably my rankings of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Minnesota, and Michigan and while North Carolina may very well be a stretch (the recent polling by Civitas and PPP, plus McCain’s own infusion of resources into the state tells me that there is something to this); the polling for Michigan and Wisconsin have both been in Obama’s favor. In Minnesota, I suspect that there is a bit of a localized convention bounce in the state that is still lingering (which could be argued for Colorado, which is why I’m still a bit hesitant to move it to Leans Obama) and I have a hard time believing that Obama’s numbers are moving up in Wisconsin while not doing so in Minnesota (which is, by and large, more Democratic than Wisconsin). Pennsylvania’s polling numbers are equally strange to me, of course McCain and Palin have been paying a lot of attention to this state and have been dumping a lot of resources there, but on the other hand, it has less to do with Obama losing support and more to do with McCain picking it up (maybe the social conservatives in the T who got re-energized by Palin?), so even with that in mind, my opinion is that Pennsylvania tends to break slightly more Democratic than the rest of the country ultimately so I have a hard time seeing Obama having any sort of lead nationally without also being considered the favorite to win Pennsylvania, so that’s my explanation (and remember, I could always be wrong, so don’t take this as being written in stone either).

Map Three: The Projected Outcome (Assumption is Obama wins popular vote by about 2 points)

Notes on this map: If someone comes in and tells me that this map looks exactly like the average one on the Washington Post’s site, then you’d be correct, this is, by sheer coincidence, the exact same map. Of course, I could’ve made a different map, but the problem with that is, I wouldn’t believe it (I think that Obama should be considered to be the slight favorite in Virginia and the very slight favorite in New Hampshire [though because New Hampshire is one of those incredibly screwy states as far as polling goes, you will probably never see a map that shows either McCain or Obama as being favored to win the state]) Colorado is almost a given as well, and with Indiana, this map goes against my own gut (which tells me that Obama will pull off the win in the state), simply because the facts and data that I know tell me that under normal circumstances, Indiana is a pretty Republican state, so even though Ann Selzer’s poll (which is the best in the business) shows Obama ahead by three in the state, I’m still pretty skeptical unless proven otherwise.

And that is the initial electoral college map, Obama should be considered the favorite to win the electoral college and popular vote, but McCain still has a shot at winning.

09.22.08

Coming Soon: Initial Electoral College Projection

Posted in Uncategorized at 2:10 pm by Elliot

Before the debate on Friday, I’m going to post my initial impression of the state of the electoral college and what I see happening. In order to give people the basic idea of what’s happening, I’ll be posting three maps, one to define the general battleground, one to allocate the leaners, and one which I make an educated guess as to where the toss-ups will ultimately go.

Here’s a bit of a teaser for you, my no toss-ups map give McCain Ohio but Obama the electoral college win.

09.19.08

Election Inspection’s Projected Senate Composition for 2009

Posted in Senate, analysis, projection tagged , , , , , , at 10:37 am by Elliot

Before getting to my projections for 2008, I’d like to put up a quick review of the State of the Senate is:

Solid Democratic (Pick-up) (1)

  • Virginia (Warner)

Solid Democratic (Retention)(10)

  • Kerry (Massachusetts)
  • Durbin (Illinois)
  • Baucus (Montana)
  • Johnson (South Dakota)
  • Levin (Michigan)
  • Harkin (Iowa)
  • Biden (Delaware)
  • Reed (Rhode Island)
  • Pryor (Arkansas) *No challenger
  • Rockefeller (West Virginia)

Likely Democratic (Pick-up) (1)

  • New Mexico (Domenici)

Possible Darkhorse races (Democratic Incumbent) (1)

  • Lautenberg (New Jersey)

Leans Democratic (4)

  • Sununu (New Hampshire)
  • Landrieu (Lousiana)
  • Colorado (Allard)
  • Stevens (Alaska)

Toss-up (2)

  • Dole (North Carolina)
  • Smith (Oregon)

Leans Republican (4)

  • Coleman (Minnesota)
  • Collins (Maine)
  • Wicker (Mississippi-B)
  • McConnell (Kentucky)

Likely Republican (Open Seat retention) (1)

  • Idaho (Craig)

Possible Darkhorse Races (Republican Incumbent) (3)

  • Cornyn (Texas)
  • Inhofe (Oklahoma)
  • Roberts (Kansas)

Solid Republican (Retention) (8)

  • Graham (South Carolina)
  • Enzi (Wyoming-A)
  • Barrasso (Wyoming-B)
  • Sessions (Alabama)
  • Cochran (Mississippi-A)
  • Chambliss (Georgia)
  • Alexander (Tennessee)
  • Nebraska (Hagel)

This week, I moved two races from Leans Republican to Toss-up (North Carolina and Oregon) both based on polling and a few other factors (in North Carolina, I know that SUSA and Research 2000 showing Dole with a moderate lead, but I’m more inclined to believe local pollsters Civitas and PPP who show the race to be at a basic tie) (in Oregon, I agree with Swing State Project’s Crisitunity, the last three polls have shown a basic tie, and Smith isn’t acting like someone in a strong position). I’d also like to add that Minnesota is tettering on the edge of toss-up and Maine is tettering on the edge of simply Dark-horse, and I’m on the fence as to whether or not I want to call Georgia a potential dark-horse, I’ll hold out for some more polling to confirm that). So right now, Democrats are projected to have 50 seats (54 if you include leans) Republicans are projected to have 38 seats (42 with leans) and there are 10 seats which are truly competitive (2 of them are true toss-ups, 4 are leaning towards the Democrats, and 4 are leaning towards the Republicans).

UPDATE: Ok, I take Tagento’s point, I’m moving New Jersey from Solid to Potential Dark-Horse, but I really don’t see Lautenberg losing either.

09.15.08

Why the focus must shift off Palin and on to McCain.

Posted in analysis at 6:49 pm by tagento

I wanted to avoid writing anything about Palin since well she is such a non-entity and a distraction. But given that people and expecially the press are falling for her act I guess I’ll capitulate briefly.

The problem with Palin is not who or what she is but that historically the choice of a Vice President has been irrelevant except in terms of picking up a state or two.

Was she the best qualified pick? No. Even if you were looking for a female Republican why not Kay Bailey Hutchinson or Heather Wilson? Is she qualified? By Spiro Agnew standards maybe. Not that the status of being as qualified as Spiro Agnew is much to aspire towards.

And Spiro Agnew is where I’ll begin.

1) Tickets do not lose based on who is Vice President.

The 1988 election actually was competitive. But it is doubtful anyone voted for Dukakis because Lloyd Bentsen was running for VP or against George Bush Sr because Dan Quayle was running for VP.

Dan Quayle was a surprise pick and was attacked mercilessly by the Democrats. Sarah Palin might be in favor of teaching creationism. Dan Quayle’s wife openly in a cringe inducing interview called the seven days of creation and the flood of Noah fact.

Some things such as the spelling bee (where potatoe actually is a valid alternate spelling of potato) was unfair. But we succeeded in the battle to portray him as a complete incompetent and a moron. Hardly anyone cared. In the end they cared more about Michael Dukakis.

In 1972 Spiro Agnew was made Vice-President in a manner similar to Sarah Palin. He was a moderate governor who was a stalwart supporter of liberal Nelson Rockefeller. And through his (mis)handling of riots in Maryland gained some acclaim by conservatives. He was useful in trying to court both the left and the right at the convention. And both did their paradoxical task. The liberal Agnew being the conservative pitbull appealing to the “silent majority.” The far-right Sarah Palin being the feminist appealing to Hillary voters.

Agnew didn’t have to prove he was qualified or that even he was a good guy. His role was to attack and draw Democratic critics away from Nixon and towards himself and to bloody up those who confronted him. To draw those with respectability down to his level.

That is Sarah Palin’s role. If your goal is to dent her popularity and bring her perception down to the level of Spiro Agnew you will probably win that battle. But at the expense of perhaps losing the war.

2) Experience isn’t the issue.

I assume most of you saw the hilarious Daily Show clip where they juxtapose Karl Rove’s analysis’ of the qualifications of Tim Kaine for VP with his praise for Sarah Palin. But we’re guilty of some of the same.

Virginia is a bigger state. Richmond is a bigger city. That isn’t why I’d vastly prefer Tim Kaine to Sarah Palin. It’s what Tim Kaine believes. It’s that I think Tim Kaine has vastly superior judgement.

Same goes if Barack Obama had selected a dark horse candidate. Joe Manchin of West Virginia? Small state. And yes he has a lot more state experience. But in the end it’s what they stand for. Bill Ritter of Colorado? My views would have nothing to do whether being a District Attorney in Denver is “better” than being Mayor of Wasilla. And neither would yours.

Perhaps the best way to illustrate what she is to them would be if Obama had selected Paul Hackett as his VP. It would be a choice that would electrify the base. His qualifications would be exceedingly thin. But I would love for Republicans to say he’s unqualified because he was “just an Iraq veteran” the same way Republicans rejoice every time someone criticizes Palin for being “just a hockey mom.”

Would Obama face criticism over such a pick? Absolutely. Might people see Hackett as unqualified. Perhaps. But in the end most will care mostly about whether he is compelling personality. Same way they are judging Palin. For partisan Obama and McCain supporters that judgement will be based on who they support anyway.

For those in the middle it will be an issue of questionable importance no matter how they decide. Which is why it would be foolish for McCain to expend too much energy attacking him (rather than Obama).

I wish this was different. In a better world former majority leader George Mitchell would be our Presidential nominee against Dick Lugar. That isn’t our world. And given I believe Obama has the potential to be a pretty good president perhaps this isn’t all that bad of a world.

3) Experience isn’t our issue.

Our issue is judgement. Not whether someone has a padded resume but whether when an issue is to be decided will the person in charge have the vision to make the correct decision.

Our issues are that Republican policies have dug the United States into a big hole domestically and aboard an only b changig those policies can we get out of that hole. McCain is great at issueing press releases but when all is said and done he supports the exact same policies and will obtain the exact same results.

4) Condescension does not benefit us or our narrative

It is easy to be condescending towards Sarah Palin. When you’re discussing what she did on the city council or at a pilates class less than five years ago in a town smaller than the campus of some of the universities you attended it’s hard not to. How is this a discussion of what qualifies one to be President?

Bill Maher dismissed her as a “stewartess” and just a “hockey mom.” And she’s been criticized for attending a number of schools before eventually obtaining her degree.

In 2004 Wesley Clark pointed out John Kerry was merely a Lieutenant while Clark was a General. A valid point in that a General has far more responsibility and executive leadership experience. A much more impressive position that takes years to rise to. But there is a reason why he only mentioned this once. The rejounder was simple and effective. There are far more Lieutenants than there are Generals. And the last thing he wanted to do was insult everyone who had been a Lieutenant.

Same way we don’t want to insult those who are from a small town. Those who are moms. Those who had to work to get their degree. We don’t want to say to those people you are not qualified to be President despite the fact most of them are in fact not qualified. Same way most of us aren’t qualified. And the same way most of us really don’t want to be told we’re not qualified despite the fact we aren’t.

And this plays to the whole “elitist” mantra of the Republicans. Some of this is the typical anti-intellectualism you can see going back to their campaign against Adlai Stevenson and Phil Gramm mentioning failing the 3rd grade far more often than having a Ph’d in economics. But the reality is there are far more students who don’t get a’s than those who do. Ted Kennedy wasn’t a very good student. But has been a damn good Senator.

But elitism is not us. It’s them. We don’t want to be condescending because Palin’s narrative is meant to show she’s “one of us.” That she is “just” a mom who struggled in school and achieved against the odds to become a Vice Presidential nominee. That she is someone who has kids and faces the same problems as the rest of us. She’s just like “you.”

That’s not our narrative. It’s not a complete nor accurate narrative. Our narrative is John McCain doesn’t get it. He doesn’t get it in part because he is in a completly different world than the rest of us. Married to a heiress and owning more homes than he can even remember he is insulated from the pain the rest of us feel. He’s a Washington beltway insider who just doesn’t see what the rest of us see. A political opportunist who has sold his soul and his policies to George W Bush to get the Republican nomination.

As for Sarah Palin. We know there is household help and her “firing the cook” story is a ruse. Due to her positions of power she has a lifestyle that is not longer like most of us. We all know that she is a petty party hack and a career politician for over a decade. She has fought for ideological purity and against anyone who questions her over anything whatsoever over pragmatism for years. She is not a woman of the people. The same way McCain is a not a man of the people.

Let’s not give the Republicans the argument they want. Sarah Palin was meant as a diversion to shift the argument away from policy and towards personality and meaningless symbolism.

The target is John McCain and the Republican Party. The party that has governed and decided national policy for the last eight years with barely a hiccup. The central question is whether people have finally “had enough.” That’s our best narrative. Let’s stick to it.

09.04.08

Honest Attacks Are OK

Posted in commentary tagged , at 3:59 pm by xstryker

As opposed to the ones Elliot mentions below. Here’s 6 reasons why Sarah Palin, if elected, would rival Quayle and Cheney for worst VP pick in US History.

  1. She opposes birth control. That includes condoms. She is a member of Feminists For Life, a group that supports prison terms for doctors who perform abortions (including in the case of rape and incest) and opposes birth control, even for married couples. They make false, unscientific claims that contraceptives cause breast cancer.
  2. She’s fiscally incompetent. She’s a borrow-and-spend Republican in the tradition of George W. Bush. Here’s how she handled the meager budget of Wasilla as mayor. First she cuts property taxes and business taxes, then increases spending 50% from $4 million to $6 million (for a little over five thousand citizens). Her next move was to increase the local sales tax to pay for a 15 million dollar ice rink and sports complex – which she failed to buy the land for beforehand. That silly mistake cost Wasilla 1.7 million dollars, when the property would have cost ony $125,000 if she’d bought it first. Keep in mind that using sales tax for this purpose shifts the tax burden from the rich to the poor – and also remember that the city charges for the use of the rink and sports complex already. So in addition to paying, for example, $36.00 for a 10 admission pass to the ice rink (which is $4.00 more than one would pay at Brett Memorial Ice Arena, which is about 7 minutes away), you’d also be paying extra for things like food, which I understand can get pretty expensive in Alaska to begin with. In the end, she left Wasilla with nearly $20 million in debt, or about $3000 per person. The town is still paying it off.
  3. She wanted to ban books with “inappropriate language”. Pardon me, but that’s a pretty fucking shitty thing to do. She asked the town librarian how to go about doing this, but the librarian would not support this. Palin later threatened to fire her for disloyalty.
  4. She vetoed wind power. While her state is busy melting, Governor Palin vetoed a 50-megawatt wind farm. Maybe it’s because she doesn’t believe global warming was caused by humans (never mind what the scientists say). She also opposed making polar bears an endangered species. This means Palin has a worse record on the environment than George W. Bush. Amazing.
  5. She supports abstinence-only education. Research shows that abstinence-only education is utterly ineffective. And it’s opposed by the American Medical Association, the American Psychological Association, and pretty much every other association of health professionals. Well, you know what happens when you ignore a doctor’s advice.
  6. She values loyalty over competence. “Eleven days after taking office in 1996, she mailed letters to each of the city’s top managers requesting that they resign as a test of loyalty.” And as Governor, she fired her top police offical again – because he refused to fire a trooper at Palin’s request. Palin is now under investigation for this. Just what we need, a repeat of the Bush Administration and its loyalty pledges.

Bonus fact – she thinks the Iraq War is a “taskfrom God.” What, did God purchase stock in Haliburton? Sarah Palin – she’s basically George W. Bush, but without all the experience.

09.03.08

Personal and dishonest attacks are NEVER Ok

Posted in opinion tagged , , , , at 4:37 pm by Elliot

Cross-posted at Daily Kos

I’m with The Field’s Al Giordano on this, we are setting ourselves up for a major fall:

What members of the national media don’t understand – what they have never understood – is why “running against the media” is such a good strategy.

Most members of the commercial media don’t want to face what everybody else knows – that as institutions go, that of “the media” is as hated or more so than George W. Bush and the US Congress.

Unfortunately, in recent days, too many bloggers and their commenters have forgotten that truth, too.

Bloggers, in general, claim to understand just how much the public distrusts the media. We bloggers have been “running against the media” from the get-go. It’s one of the biggest keys to our success: that readers turn to us instead of the commercial media it distrusts. The one thing that could most rapidly destroy that for us would be if we became, in the public’s mind, associated with the same sloppy arrogance which it associates with the media.

That ought to be a no brainer. But in recent days, too many bloggers and their commenters have aped the worst qualities of the commercial media in such a way as to allow the McCain campaign and the far right to lump us in with the reviled commercial media to make us, too, the receptacle of that public hatred.

It’s about the “unvetted diaries,” stupid.

Netroots and pro-Democratic party blogs have become the staging areas for “unvetted diaries” – some planted, no doubt, by covert McCain backers, others as sincere as they are imbecilic – that screech about McCain not vetting his vice presidential pick while behaving just as irresponsibly as their target. Too many bloggers and their commenters have jumped on rumors – about pregnancies and other matters – that turned out to be false, and have harmed the messengers’ own credibility by stating them as fact.

And in cases where the front-page bloggers at websites did not engage in such boneheaded activity, but their rank-and-file diarists or commenters did, we who run our blogs have a special responsibility to step in and put things right again.

The logic in too much of the blogosphere – left, right, and other – is that if a claim is potentially damaging to the enemy, it gets shouted as “fact” far and wide, even before the claim is investigated and vetted. Beyond the already double-edged sword of preggers-gate, this occurred in recent days with blogger claims that Governor Palin was a “member” of the Alaska Independent Party (now swatted down with documents; she’s always been a registered Republican) and that she “supported” Pat Buchanan for president in 2000 (she supported Steve Forbes).

Al’s not talking about the stuff that is true and that are clearly related to her political (or that which is obviously related to it) judgement but about the personal attacks and the stuff that has been, in all honesty, blown out of proportion and the stuff that is pretty clearly a personal attack against Palin’s family.

In addition to Al’s post about the political ramifications of these attacks (which I believe are definitely solid) there is also a post written by hilzoy of Obsidian Wings which touch on the moral question of the attacks which have definitely been of a more personal nature:

I want no part of this. None at all. To those of you who think otherwise: that’s your right. But ask yourself how you felt when Republicans scored points using Chelsea Clinton, who didn’t ask to be dragged into the spotlight either.

As far as I’m concerned, it’s fair game to consider Sarah Palin’s statements about her daughter’s decision, and to compare them to her own views about abortion. That’s a story about whether or not Sarah Palin sticks to her beliefs when they affect her own family, not about her daughter. But it is not fair game to use her daughter, or any of her kids, as pawns in a political argument. To my mind, this extends to using her daughter as evidence that abstinence-only education doesn’t work: presumably, no one thinks that it works 100% of the time, and that’s the only claim to which this one counterexample could possibly be relevant. (That’s why God created large-scale studies.) Likewise, I think that arguing about whether Sarah Palin is a good mother is out of line: we have no idea at all what arrangements she and her husband have made for child care, how their relationship works, and so forth. Assuming that Sarah Palin would have to be her children’s primary caregiver is just sexist.

If the past is any guide, some people will respond to this post by saying that the Republicans would not hesitate to use Democrats’ teenage children to score political points. That may be. Three responses: first, so what? Just because they do it doesn’t mean that we should. Second, any argument for going there would have to assume that this would, in fact, be a political winner, and thus that not using it would entail some sort of political sacrifice. I am not at all convinced that that is true. Most importantly, though, there are some lines I’m not willing to cross no matter what the other side does.

Ignoring the political consequences for a moment (which I do believe are probably not to the Democrats’ advantage) this is not something which would ever be acceptable to us if the Republicans were doing it to us (and before anyone jumps at me, I know damn well they have) and there is a good reason for that, it isn’t right and saying that this it “serves ‘em right” just doesn’t measure up. I’m sorry, but I don’t really care that Sarah Palin’s daughter is pregnant and I also don’t give a damn whether or not she ultimately gets married or not. It’s one thing to attack Sarah Palin for being a right-wing extremist who believes that creationism should be taught in public schools, that women should never be allowed to get an abortion (unless they are at risk of dying), and that her own experience is completely lacking; but things like campaigning while having a five-month old (and don’t feed me this crap about the baby having Down’s Syndrome, because this is certainly not something that would be asked of male candidates, so whatever I think of Sarah Palin, it is definitely pretty sexist), or some DUI on her husband’s record when he was in his twenties, or things which are pretty clearly in that same league.

Many of the liberal responses on the net have been along the lines of “well, do you think the Republicans would hold back on this” or “well, they had it coming” which always reminds of the basic argument behind the death penalty, the guys who did that deserved it, which always tend to ignore key things like it doesn’t deter crime or that it is completely inconsistent with would own sensibilities as human beings. This argument shows that this has nothing to do with what is right or not or what is a good idea or not, and has everything to do with the fact that because they did something really bad, that gives us the inherent right to do something really bad right back.

Marching down this road does absolutely nothing to help us take back the White House and it certainly leaves us at a point where we are no better than the Republicans, which is almost inherent in the typical response to Al, Hilzoy, or myself: “The Republicans did it first”.

NM-01: SUSA poll: Heinrich leads White by 5

Posted in House of Representatives, New Mexico tagged , , , , , , , at 11:21 am by Elliot

SUSA released a poll for the congressional race in my home district of NM-01 between Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican Darren White:

Heinrich 51%
White 46%

SUSA also polled the presidential race in the district:

Obama 55%
McCain 41%

I like the numbers, but something to keep in mind is that despite Heinrich’s lead, White is viewed more favorably than Heinrich by about 9 points. Of course, it would appear that this doesn’t show that Heinrich is viewed unfavorably, just that he isn’t as well known, so these numbers are pretty good in that context. Obama’s strong performance in CD-01 (as well as the coattails generated by Tom Udall) may very well be enough to push Heinrich over the top (by the way, I wish SUSA would’ve polled the Senate race here, it would’ve been interesting to see how Udall was doing here).

h/t James L.

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