10.10.08
State of the Electoral College (10/10/2008)
(Previous versions can be found here and here)
This is the third version of Election Inspection’s electoral college projection:
Map One: The Battlegrounds (All states in grey are either toss-up or leaning towards one of the candidates)
Changes from previous version: Move Georgia from McCain state to Battleground (McCain -15, Battleground +15)
Notes on Map: Moving Georgia to the battleground is something which seems controversial, but if you read Nate Silver’s excellent article on voter registration in the state, you’ll see why I’ve given Georgia battleground status.
Map Two: the Toss-ups (all states in grey should be considered true toss-ups)
Changes from previous version: Move Missouri from Leans McCain to Toss-up (McCain -11, toss-up +11), move Virginia and New Hampshire from Toss-up to Leans Obama (Obama +17, toss-up -17)
Notes on Map: My reason for moving Virginia from toss-up to Leans Democratic is based on the fact that three of the four most recent polls of Virginia have Obama leading in the state by at least 8 points. Even though I still feel that New Hampshire is a screwy state that is difficult to poll, the fact is that the polling as of late has given Obama pretty sizeable margins, so it’s difficult to say that the state is anything but Leaning Obama.
Map Three: Projected Outcome (Obama wins popular vote by 5 points)
Changes from previous version: Move Florida and Indiana from McCain to Obama (Obama +38, McCain -38)
Notes on Map: For those who remember my hypothetical 5-point Obama win, this probably looks familiar, the only real difference between this map and the previous one is my giving McCain Missouri instead of Obama.
Daniel said,
October 12, 2008 at 1:25 pm
The number of toss up/leaning states on your map are ridiculous and ultimately renders your map meaningless.
Elliot said,
October 12, 2008 at 1:58 pm
I’m sorry, but why do you think my maps are “meaningless”? If you disagree with my rankings for states, that’s fine, but you’re broadly attacking my rankings without specifically pointing out where I’m wrong.
Looking at Minnesota and Wisconsin, you can see that Pollster.com gives Obama 5 and 6 point leads (respectively) and since McCain is still actively competing in those states, that means that they are both battlegrounds. Pennsylvania, on the other hand, might have a relatively large lead for Obama, but McCain is still actively competing for the state (regardless of whether or not that’s a good idea or not is beside the point) so I’m erring on the side of caution and calling it a “Leans” state (though I think I’ll change that if Pennsylvania doesn’t tighten). New Hampshire is always a really weird state, so I’m never comfortable calling anything more than a leans anything, while Maine (CD2) and Nebraska (CD2) are both being heavily contested by both McCain and Obama respectively (though I should probably move NE-02 back to Leans Republican because of the DKos/Research 2000 poll).
Long Post Today: Parties, Football, Gossip, Politics, Rallies, Etc. « blueollie said,
October 12, 2008 at 7:31 pm
[...] site (fivethirtyeight.com) seems to get it right. It isn’t really a toss up right now; Obama has an advantage. However [...]
tagento said,
October 14, 2008 at 6:34 pm
In answer to Daniel unless an election is a complete blowout you tend to have a lot of states that are “toss-up” but most of them tend to go closely in one way or another following the overall national popular vote.
Just take a look at the 1988 presidential contest. Despite a huge electoral vote margin you had quite a number of states who were within 6 points.
If trends hold and Obama keeps his popular vote lead he WILL win (unless it becomes insanely close like in 2000). What isn’t yet known is the exact combination. The toss-up states are those who if one side really outworks the other or if something happens on the ground could still conceivably switch to one side or the other. Some states (Colorado, Virginia) are more likely to fall from their assumed positions than others (Wisconsin, Georgia).