Solid Democratic (Pick-up) (1)

• Virginia (Warner)

Solid Democratic (Retention)(10)

• Kerry (Massachusetts)
• Durbin (Illinois)
• Baucus (Montana)
• Johnson (South Dakota)
• Levin (Michigan)
• Harkin (Iowa)
• Biden (Delaware)
• Reed (Rhode Island)
• Pryor (Arkansas) *No challenger
• Rockefeller (West Virginia)

Likely Democratic (Pick-up) (1)

• New Mexico (Domenici)

Possible Darkhorse races (Democratic Incumbent) (2)

• Lautenberg (New Jersey)
• Landrieu (Lousiana)

Leans Democratic (3)

• Sununu (New Hampshire)
• Colorado (Allard)
• Stevens (Alaska)

Toss-up (3)

• Dole (North Carolina)
• Smith (Oregon)
• Coleman (Minnesota)

Leans Republican (3)

• Wicker (Mississippi-B)
• McConnell (Kentucky)
• Chambliss (Georgia)

Likely Republican (Open Seat retention) (1)

• Idaho (Craig)

Possible Darkhorse Races (Republican Incumbent) (5)

• Cornyn (Texas)
• Inhofe (Oklahoma)
• Roberts (Kansas)
• Collins (Maine)
• Graham (South Carolina)

Solid Republican (Retention) (6)

• Enzi (Wyoming-A)
• Barrasso (Wyoming-B)
• Sessions (Alabama)
• Cochran (Mississippi-A)
• Alexander (Tennessee)
• Nebraska (Hagel)

As it stands right now, Election Inspection projects that the 111th Senate will have at least 51 Democrats (54 with leaners) 38 Republicans (41 with leaners) 2 Independents (at least one who caucuses with the Democrats) and three seats are considered to be toss-ups. I’d also like to add that I’m quite close to moving North Carolina to Leans Democratic, as the polling has been moving pretty much in Hagan’s favor (in fact, I suspect that Gordon Smith and Norm Coleman will ultimately lose their seats, this would leave Democrats two seats short of a filibuster proof majority (this assumes that Bernie Sanders caucuses with the Democrats while Joe Lieberman does not). The Democrats now have a fighting chance at getting the magic 60 seat number. I’d also like to add that in the next week or so I’ll be posting an initial look at which races could end up competitive or not in 2010 (I’ll also start looking at the gubenatorial races as well).