12.06.08
Posted in Uncategorized at 11:09 pm by skywrnchsr509
Things go ill in Louisiana tonight at this time.
As of this moment with nearly 100 precincts to go, Anh Cao is beating Dollar Bill jefferson 53% 43%. I’ll let you debate whether that is good or bad.
Fleming has just taken the lead in Lousiana 4 over Paul Carmouche by less than 400 votes. with all precincts reporting.
AP calls the race in LA 2 for Cao. Dollar Bill Jefferson loses. Carmouche goes to a recount will the stain of Jefferson is washed away, atleast we have to the celebrate, even if the Republicans did take the seat.
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12.04.08
Posted in Uncategorized tagged 2010, Arizona, election news, J.D. Hayworth, John McCain, Senate at 7:33 pm by skywrnchsr509
John McCain, fresh off his loss of the 2008 presidential race was looking forward to going home, resting and recuperating with a nice easy senate race ahead of him. But it appears all is not well in Arizona for McCain and things may not turn out all that easy for him.
There has bee na lot of speculation that Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano may get involved in the Senate race here in the state but that specualtion has begun to die down with word that she will be in President-elect Obama’s cabinet. It was then assumed that Democrats would not be able to mount a credible challenge to McCain, but it may not be McCain we have to face.
It appears that some Republicans, even some in the power structure of the state party, want John McCain to go away. They are advocating for a primary challenge and it is possible that not only could they get that challenge, but that the challenge may come from a big name. According to the national review, Former Congressman and current conservative talk radio show host J.D. Hayworth is getting some pressure put on him to run in the race. Rob Haney, the former district 11 chairman has been putting the pressure on and Hayworth has apparently been getting calls into his show urging him to run.
I personally could not envision a better scenario as I think Hayworth would be much easier to defeat than McCain and that even a Jim Pederson type of candidate could win in this case. If you live in the state of Arizona, you should really consider calling in to Hayworth’s radio show and tell him all abouthow he should run for the senate against McCain. With a little luck, the Club for Growth will help him out and give us a chance to win in 2 states instead of one.
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12.01.08
Posted in Uncategorized tagged barack obama, Hillary Clinton, New York, Senate, special election at 2:42 pm by Elliot
Alright, looks like Obama selected Hillary Clinton as his Secretary of State. Before I go into the details of what to look for and why, I’d like to state that I’m not happy with Obama’s decision here. Yes, I’ll admit that I was a bit disappointed in Obama’s decision to pick Biden as his running mate, but that had more to do with campaign strategy (and that I simply prefered other candidates). In Clinton’s case, I was opposed to her in the primaries because of her hawkish views on foreign policy, and the very reason I supported Obama was because his foreign policy positions were, to my mind, better than Clinton’s. This post really isn’t meant to discuss the merits of Senator Clinton as Secretary of State though, this is meant to be a post as to whether or not the New York seat will at all be competitive in 2010. So let’s look at the relevant points here:
1. We don’t know who Clinton’s replacement in the Senate will be, and we won’t know until Gov. Paterson selects the nominee, and remember that Paterson’s selection will be more concerned with his own re-election than with who is the best possible candidate to keep the seat. In other words, it could be in Paterson’s interest to appoint a relatively weak Democrat to the seat in order to draw strong Republicans away from his seat and to the newly open senate seat.
2. New York is, all things being equal, an extremely Democratic state (Barack Obama defeated John McCain by 25.5 points). What this means is that even in a Republican wave election, a generic Democrat should still be expected to defeat a generic Republican. Of course, a Republican like Rudy Giuliani could probably make a strong play for it, but unless Paterson nominates an exceptionally weak Democrat, even Giuliani would have a hard time winning in New York.
3. New York is extremely expensive to compete in. Even if the stars align for the Republicans (the are able to entice Rudy Giuliani to run, Paterson nominates an exceptionally weak Democrat, and the national mood sours) competing in New York will be extremely expensive for both the Republican nominee and the NRSC (National Republican Senatorial Committee). To put this in perspective, in his losing bid against Hillary Clinton in 2000, Rep. Rick Lazio spent over $40 million in the state (Clinton spent about $29 million). You should also consider that the NRSC isn’t in particularly good shape with its fundraising (the DSCC has out-fundraised the NRSC every cycle since 2000) and it doesn’t help that the Republicans other shot at winning happens to be in extremely expensive California (depending on whether or not Arnie runs against Boxer or not).
Unless a lot of things happen fall right in place for the Republicans, I sincerely doubt that the Democrats are in serious danger of losing the New York senate seat.
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