01.29.09

More on long-term strategy

Posted in Uncategorized tagged , , , at 11:52 pm by Elliot

When I originally wrote on long-term strategy and pointed to David Sirota’s argument as my example of a disagreement, I wasn’t trying to pick on him, nor was I trying to get into a fight with him, but it is becoming apparent to me that Sirota can’t deal with the fact that there are bloggers who disagree with him without devolving into insults:

What this blogger fails to realize is what I suggested earlier: That Democrats aren’t (like this blogger) frolicking with ponies in a psychedelic fantasyland. That is, they aren’t stupid to the point of lobotomization and they know that no matter how nice they are to Republicans, the GOP will never, ever ever support the Employee Free Choice Act. Indeed, that’s exactly what Republican leader Mitch McConnell has already said, in no uncertain terms[...]

Of course Mitch McConnell says that, he wouldn’t be doing his job as the Senate Leader if he didn’t say that, but that doesn’t mean that McConnell is some sort of god, nor does it mean that he can keep a unanimous caucus 100% of the time (McConnell hasn’t been able to keep a unanimous caucus for any of the votes so far, so what makes Sirota really think that McConnell could really force Arlen Specter to risk the wrath of the unions in Pennsylvania?)

What this whole thing boils down to is what Booman referred to the other day:

So, let us stipulate that David Sirota is correct to note that the Republicans will not be “cajoled with candy and niceties into supporting bills to help make union organizing easier.” However, we should be careful to consider other facts that are in the record. On June 26, 2007, the Senate voted 51-48 in favor of the Employee Free Choice Act (but they needed 60 votes to invoke cloture). Every Democrat voted for it. Every Republican except Arlen Specter voted against it. Assuming that Specter votes for it again when it comes up in this Congress, and assuming that all the Democrats that voted for it in 2007 vote for it again, and assuming that all the newly elected/appointed Democrats vote for it, the Employee Free Choice Act will have the support of exactly the sixty votes required to pass.

So, when Mitch McConnell says that he is going to fight like hell to prevent passage of the union-friendly bill, what he really means is that he is going to do everything he can to pressure Arlen Specter to flip his vote, to prevent any other Republicans from wavering, and to apply some pressure on veteran Democrats to change their mind and freshmen Democrats to take his side.

And by the way, speaking of Booman, this is definitely something I’d keep in mind for later reference:

While I agree with Sirota when he argues that the Republicans will never support any legislation that makes it easier for unions to organize, I don’t agree that it doesn’t pay to play a little patty-cake with moderate Republicans. Invite ‘em to dinner. Give ‘em a cocktail. Make them a cabinet member. Whatever. At the end of the day you wind up with an administration that is inclusive of 80% of the electorate and a Senate that is nearly impervious to obstruction.

01.28.09

2010 Senate Race Ratings

Posted in Senate tagged , , , at 2:47 pm by Elliot

I noticed that the fine people over at Swing State Project have posted an initial ranking of the 2010 Senate races, and with all the appointments finally made for the Democratic seats (is it just me, or are there some Democratic governors with really twisted senses of humor?) I figure that now is a good time to post an update to my initial ranking. As opposed to last time, this will be a bit more specific, labeling them in the more traditional categories of Toss-up, Leans, Likely, Dark-Horse, and Safe. Before getting to the rankings, this is my description of each category:

Safe: These races are not at all considered competitive nor do they have any real prospect for being considered competitive short of monumental scandal or divine intervention (something like Jesus returning to challenge Richard Shelby, or something like that).

Potential Darkhorse: These races are not competitive, but there is the potential for it becoming competitive in the future. This will usually apply to races with an incumbent, but open seats can also qualify depending on the circumstances.

Likely: These races are somewhat competitive, but one party has a strong advantage over the other.

Leans: These races are very competitive, with party having a clear, but not strong, advantage over the other.

Toss-up: These races are the most competitive, with neither party having any real advantage over the other (that doesn’t mean that one side might not have an advantage over the other, but these edges are largely superficial)

So with the rankings all aside, let’s look at the rankings:

Solid Democratic (6)

  • Bayh (Indiana)
  • Leahy (Vermont)
  • Schumer (New York-A)
  • Wyden (Oregon)
  • Inouye (Hawaii) 
  • Mikulski (Maryland)
  • Democratic Potential Dark-Horse (10)

  • Dorgan (North Dakota)
  • Feingold (Wisconsin)
  • Reid (Nevada)  
  • Boxer (California)
  • Murray (Washington)
  • Open Delaware (Kaufman)
  • Burris (Illinois) 
  • Lincoln (Arkansas)
  • Gillibrand (New York-B)
  • Dodd (Connecticut)
  • Likely Democratic (0)

    N/A

    Leans Democratic (1)

    • Bennett (Colorado)

    Toss-ups (4)

    • Open Missouri (Bond)
    • Open Florida (Martinez)
    • Open Ohio (Voinovich)
    • Bunning (Kentucky)

    Leans Republican (4)

    • Burr (North Carolina)
    • Specter (Pennsylvania)
    • Open Kansas (Brownback)
    • Gregg (New Hampshire)

    Likely Republican

    N/A

    Republican Potential Dark-Horse (3)

    • Grassley (Iowa)
    • Isakson (Georgia)
    • Vitter (Louisiana)

    Safe Republican (8)

    • DeMint (South Carolina)
    • McCain (Arizona)
    • Shelby (Alabama)
    • Bennett (Utah)
    • Coburn (Oklahoma)
    • Crapo (Idaho)
    • Murkowski (Alaska)
    • Thune (South Dakota)

    01.27.09

    Note to Liberals: Don’t forget the long-term strategy

    Posted in Uncategorized at 6:43 pm by Elliot

    I really do think that there are some liberals who really don’t have a solid understanding of long-term strategy. Take, for example, David Sirota of OpenLeft, who states:

    Rachel [Maddow] and I discussed a question that I asked a few weeks ago: When it comes to the economic recovery package, how much should taxpayers have to pay for political aesthetics? As I noted back then, the Obama administration concedes to reporters that it could pass an economic recovery package right now, without making any policy concessions to Republicans, such as substituting more tax cuts for more infrastructure spending. And yet, Obama and Democrats are doing just that – making concessions to Republicans in hopes that a majority of Republicans will support the final bill. And so again, how many billions of dollars in inefficient tax cuts must taxpayers be forced to finance in order to help Obama attract extra Republican votes that he doesn’t actually need?

    What’s so bad about this question even being on the table is that since I wrote my original post, Republicans themselves have publicly acknowledged that Democrats do not have to make any concessions to them in order to pass the bill.

    Of course, Sirota’s point about the bail-out is true, in the sense that, yes, the Democrats could easily force through a bail-out without any real input from Republicans and still expect to get it through both the House and the Senate (I honestly don’t believe that McConnell would seriously try to block a stimulus bill) but that doesn’t really matter because, as Al Giordano (as usual) notes, this is about long-term electoral and legislative strategy:

    The President doesn’t need their [Republicans'] votes on the Stimulus (therefore, this maneuver is not about the Stimulus, but more akin to a football team calling a running play to set up a later passing play). The truth is that so many Congressional Democrats are so undependable that Obama will need some Republican votes later on other legislative priorities, particularly in the Senate in order to get 60 votes for “cloture” to allow bills to be voted up or down: On the Employee’s Free Choice Act, on Immigration Reform (and now he needs one more to offset the anti-immigrant junior Democratic Senator from New York), on children’s health care and much, much more. To get to that point, he has to make individual Republicans feel vulnerable at the ballot box to Democratic challenge. Today’s events are speeding that process up.

    To give a practical example of Al’s point, if Blanche Lincoln, whose home state politics are dominated by Wal-Mart, decides to oppose the EFCA, would forcing the stimulus bill through the congress with no absolutely no attempt to negotiate with the Republicans really make Republican senators like Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, and Arlen Spector more likely to support EFCA? Probably not.

    Another point, raised by Booman over at the Booman Tribune (a must read), is this idea that individual Republican senators, in order to be able to have any say in governing, must be willing to compromise in committees. To take this point a step further (and to relate it back to what Al said) if the Democrats don’t show any inclination towards getting input from Republicans on these issues, why exactly should the Republicans make any concessions on other issues which will require bipartisan support for passage (like health-care or immigration reform)? Think back to the elections, both Hillary Clinton and John McCain both were making decisions almost uniformly based on short-term considerations, while it was Obama who was thinking long-term in his strategy, and guess who became president?

    UPDATE: It would appear that David Sirota is throwing a temper tantrum because I happen to disagree with him:

    Al Giordano and Election Inspection make arguably the most ignorant, least informed, stupendously idiotic assertion that Obama is trying to negotiate with Republicans on the economic recovery package in the belief that if he plays his cards right now, they will cooperate with Democrats when Democrats push more contentious bills like the Employee Free Choice Act.

    Now, look – I think Obama is making a big mistake not by rhetorically reaching out to Republicans, but by legislatively negotiating with them on a stimulus bill where their legislative complicity isn’t necessary. However, Barack Obama is a lot of things – but one of them is not stupid to the point of braindead. He is definitely not stupid enough to believe – as Giordino(sp) and Election Inspection apparently do themselves, and as they believe Obama does himself – that being nice to Republicans on the stimulus bill or outmaneuvering him on the bill will make them more likely to later vote for something like the Employee Free Choice Act, a bill that the entire corporate community has sworn to stop at all costs.

    Ignoring this bizarre claim that the Republicans are outmanuevering Obama on this (which Al has already thoroughly debunked) Sirota seems to be taking strategic cues from the Republicans, basically that Democrats need to shove through whatever they can and to hell with whatever the other guys want. Of course, we all know what happened to the Republicans after they did that, don’t we?

    01.22.09

    NY Senate: Blue Dog Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand to replace Clinton

    Posted in New York, Senate tagged , , , at 11:54 pm by xstryker

    So says local WB news affiliate WPIX-11.

    PIX11 News has learned Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand is the choice of Governor David Paterson to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Hillary Clinton. Two Congressional sources tell PIX News that the Governor will make his announcement in Albany at noon tomorrow. He has invited members of the state’s Democratic Congressional delegation to join him.

    Ugh, what a disaster. Rep. Gillibrand (D, NY-20) is pretty much the most conservative Democrat in the state’s delegation (with the possible exception of the newly-elected Mike McMahon in NY-13, Staten Island). Here’s what the Village Voice has to say about the matter:

    Gillibrand has described her own voting record as “one of the most conservative in the state.” She opposes any path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, supports renewing the Bush tax cuts for individuals earning up to $1 million annually, and voted for the Bush-backed FISA bill that permits wiretapping of international calls. She was one of four Democratic freshmen in the country, and the only Democrat in the New York delegation, to vote for the Bush administration’s bill to extend funding for the Iraq war shortly after she entered congress in 2007.

    Yeccch. She also voted against the bailout bill, which is not a very smart move in a state that’s home to Wall Street. Say what you will about the bailout, but that is going to cost her dearly on Long Island (where the two most populous “swing” counties in the state are).

    I hope Gov. Paterson chooses Rep. Carolyn Maloney (NY-14) instead, a much more progressive candidate who is far more in line with Secretary Clinton’s values.

    Update: The other progressive Carolyn M. in the state delegation, Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, already pre-emptively threatened a primary challenge in 2010.