01.27.09
Note to Liberals: Don’t forget the long-term strategy
I really do think that there are some liberals who really don’t have a solid understanding of long-term strategy. Take, for example, David Sirota of OpenLeft, who states:
Rachel [Maddow] and I discussed a question that I asked a few weeks ago: When it comes to the economic recovery package, how much should taxpayers have to pay for political aesthetics? As I noted back then, the Obama administration concedes to reporters that it could pass an economic recovery package right now, without making any policy concessions to Republicans, such as substituting more tax cuts for more infrastructure spending. And yet, Obama and Democrats are doing just that – making concessions to Republicans in hopes that a majority of Republicans will support the final bill. And so again, how many billions of dollars in inefficient tax cuts must taxpayers be forced to finance in order to help Obama attract extra Republican votes that he doesn’t actually need?
What’s so bad about this question even being on the table is that since I wrote my original post, Republicans themselves have publicly acknowledged that Democrats do not have to make any concessions to them in order to pass the bill.
Of course, Sirota’s point about the bail-out is true, in the sense that, yes, the Democrats could easily force through a bail-out without any real input from Republicans and still expect to get it through both the House and the Senate (I honestly don’t believe that McConnell would seriously try to block a stimulus bill) but that doesn’t really matter because, as Al Giordano (as usual) notes, this is about long-term electoral and legislative strategy:
The President doesn’t need their [Republicans'] votes on the Stimulus (therefore, this maneuver is not about the Stimulus, but more akin to a football team calling a running play to set up a later passing play). The truth is that so many Congressional Democrats are so undependable that Obama will need some Republican votes later on other legislative priorities, particularly in the Senate in order to get 60 votes for “cloture” to allow bills to be voted up or down: On the Employee’s Free Choice Act, on Immigration Reform (and now he needs one more to offset the anti-immigrant junior Democratic Senator from New York), on children’s health care and much, much more. To get to that point, he has to make individual Republicans feel vulnerable at the ballot box to Democratic challenge. Today’s events are speeding that process up.
To give a practical example of Al’s point, if Blanche Lincoln, whose home state politics are dominated by Wal-Mart, decides to oppose the EFCA, would forcing the stimulus bill through the congress with no absolutely no attempt to negotiate with the Republicans really make Republican senators like Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, and Arlen Spector more likely to support EFCA? Probably not.
Another point, raised by Booman over at the Booman Tribune (a must read), is this idea that individual Republican senators, in order to be able to have any say in governing, must be willing to compromise in committees. To take this point a step further (and to relate it back to what Al said) if the Democrats don’t show any inclination towards getting input from Republicans on these issues, why exactly should the Republicans make any concessions on other issues which will require bipartisan support for passage (like health-care or immigration reform)? Think back to the elections, both Hillary Clinton and John McCain both were making decisions almost uniformly based on short-term considerations, while it was Obama who was thinking long-term in his strategy, and guess who became president?
UPDATE: It would appear that David Sirota is throwing a temper tantrum because I happen to disagree with him:
Al Giordano and Election Inspection make arguably the most ignorant, least informed, stupendously idiotic assertion that Obama is trying to negotiate with Republicans on the economic recovery package in the belief that if he plays his cards right now, they will cooperate with Democrats when Democrats push more contentious bills like the Employee Free Choice Act.
Now, look – I think Obama is making a big mistake not by rhetorically reaching out to Republicans, but by legislatively negotiating with them on a stimulus bill where their legislative complicity isn’t necessary. However, Barack Obama is a lot of things – but one of them is not stupid to the point of braindead. He is definitely not stupid enough to believe – as Giordino(sp) and Election Inspection apparently do themselves, and as they believe Obama does himself – that being nice to Republicans on the stimulus bill or outmaneuvering him on the bill will make them more likely to later vote for something like the Employee Free Choice Act, a bill that the entire corporate community has sworn to stop at all costs.
Ignoring this bizarre claim that the Republicans are outmanuevering Obama on this (which Al has already thoroughly debunked) Sirota seems to be taking strategic cues from the Republicans, basically that Democrats need to shove through whatever they can and to hell with whatever the other guys want. Of course, we all know what happened to the Republicans after they did that, don’t we?
Mithras said,
January 28, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Conflict sells, and Sirota is the wholesaler. He’s urging explicit ideological battle and humiliation of the GOP, knowing Obama will never be that nakedly partisan or confrontational. It’s not his style or what he ran on. Sirota is taking this position in bad faith to present himself as the purist who kept the faith while that sellout Obama was selling us out, man.
xstryker said,
January 28, 2009 at 2:30 pm
Sirota’s famous temper strikes again. He has a long history of lashing out like that.
In any case, no one is ever happy in times of economic turmoil. No matter what happens, we’ll be somewhere between what Krugman thinks we need, and what the Blue Dogs are willing to spend. The real point of compromise is to give the Blue Dogs cover – we already know the Republicans will by and large act like whiny children.
The same goes for the road ahead – if given the opportunity, the Republicans (moderates included) will act like children. But if Obama remains popular, his reforms remain popular, and the Blue Dogs have the cover they need to ensure passage, then the likelihood is that the GOP moderates will piss their pants and climb aboard rather than mount endless delaying tactics.
I understand Sirota’s concern – the real, serious question is if Obama will cash in that capital enough to deliver on his promises to progressives. I’m with you, Elliot – we know this man. We know his heart, and we know his tactics. Obama is following the Obama playbook to lasting, long-term success. But if the EFCA fails to pass, or health insurance reform, etc etc, then we’ll have a yardstick to see who was right.
The fact is, our yardsticks for success – FDR and LBJ – both featured significant amounts of failure. In some ways, they represented a bubble of liberalism, in which some (not all) of their accomplishments were undone. Obama is once again breaking from history – to see if you can solve a crisis, bring progressive change, and yet avoid the bitter cultural divides created in the past. Our yardstick for failure is much clearer – Clinton attempted to push things through the way FDR and LBJ did, and found that he didn’t have nearly as much crisis-capital as either. This led to a much more immediate culture backlash in 1994.
If Obama’s reforms are undone in 2012 or 2016, we have failed. But to be honest, if he accomplishes as much as he needs to – as much as FDR or LBJ or Lincoln did – and somehow simultaneously shrinks the cultural divide rather than widens it, then Obama may seriously bypass “great” and aim for “greatest”.
Brien Jackson said,
January 29, 2009 at 12:29 am
Your last point is very important, because it underscores the bottom line of the whole thing; guys like Sirota, Chris Bowers, and Markos are basically the Limbaughs and Hannitys of the left of center. I’ve been running a “segment” to that effect on my blog for a couple of months now, not because I’m not a “real progressive,” but because I don’t want progressives to fall into the same trap the right-wing did.
xstryker said,
January 29, 2009 at 10:21 am
Key difference, of course, is that they’re not terrible, hateful people, unlike Rush and Hannity. And while I’m largely with them on the issues, there are lots of cases where there are differences in strategy. Bowers, especially. Markos is more pragmatic; he certainly raises the volume anytime we don’t get exactly what we want, but if no one complained, then no one would remember when the time has come for restitution.
Sirota, while quite talented, has a tendency toward immaturity in the face of criticism.
More on long-term strategy « Election Inspection said,
January 29, 2009 at 11:52 pm
[...] in Uncategorized tagged Obama, Senate, stimulus, strategy at 11:52 pm by Elliot When I originally wrote on long-term strategy and pointed to David Sirota’s argument as my example of a [...]
Ed Harris said,
July 14, 2009 at 9:48 pm
Re Obama remaining popular…you can see what has happened in the last 6 months. I think we’ll see more declining numbers and probably a few more Republicans in the Senate after next year’s election.