Preface

October 1993 most people would’ve thought Harris Wafford fairly safe in his Pennsylvania Senate seat.  And James Sasser of  Tennessee?  As safe as Evan Bayh is today.  A year can make a big difference.  Particularly when a president’s party is still in it’s honeymoon period.  Not that things always get worse for the Presidential party.  Sometimes like in the 2002 post-9-11 congressional campaign the party with the Presidency can make gains.

However it is close enough to 2010 that I will use the tradition solid,safe , leaning, tossup terminology.

Solid = Put them in the bank.  Safe = Safe barring something unusual happening.  Lean = Close races.  Tossup = Races where there is little indication of who is ahead or behind.

Blue = Democratic held seats, Red = Republican held seats

Still I must emphasize right now it is too early to tell since there is a lot we don’t know.  Incumbents may retire, challengers may drop out and in, and incumbents may strengthen themselves or face scandal.  Right now I am assuming a mild (rather than strong) anti-Obama mood with a mild pro-incumbent bias.  I’ll also give this warning.  Traditionally close races never split down the middle and either go one way or another depending on the mood on election day.

 
Solid Democrat -

Hawaii – Daniel Inouye – Democatic Incumbent – Despite being 86 Inouye has indicated he’s seeking yet another term.  A Hawaii institution, even Lingle (who isn’t running) would have little shot taking him out.  However given his age one cannot discount the possibility of health concerns changing his plans.

Maryland – Barbara Mikulski – Democratic Incumbent – Long time incumbent who should have no trouble winning re-election.  Even if she doesn’t run for re-election Maryland is a difficult state for Republicans without much of a bench.

Massachusetts – John Kerry – Democratic Incumbent - Massachusetts is an overwelmingly Democratic state that has seen it’s Republican bench atrophy under it’s recent Republican governors.  With Patrick Deval’s decline in popularity any and all Republican energy will be focused on the Governor race.

New York A – Chuck Schumer – Democratic Incumbent - Any Republican looking to snatch a Senate seat is looking at Kirsten Gillibrand.  And even she is having trouble finding an opponent.

Vermont – Patrick Leahy – Democratic Incumbent – Long time popular incumbent.  Zero chance of him losing if he runs.

Safe Democratic -

California – Barbara Boxer – Democratic Incumbent – Her strongest potential opponent, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, has ruled out a challenge as his own numbers have plummeted thanks to the financial crisis hitting many American states.  Carly Fiorina stewardship of Hewlett Packard was both eventful and controversial including a scandal involving allegations of illegally wiretapping employees.  But she is a self-funder.  Something important in a large state where Republicans have trouble competing and where Boxer if pressed may suck up money that might normally go towards candidates in smaller less Democratic states.

Indiana – Evan Bayh – Democratic Incumbent – The most popular Democratic incumbent in Indiana since his father Byrch Bayh lost unexpectedly in a Republican wave election in 1980.  Byrch however faced sitting congressman Dan Quayle whereas Evan has yet to attract a top draw challenger.

New York B – Kirsten Gillibrand – Democratic Incumbent Appointee - While her polling has been middling even if satisfactory she has seen almost all opposition to her re-election evaporate.  However an entry by Pataki or Guiliani would put her in danger.  Guiliani is unlikely given that he still probably is aiming towards the presidency and a loss would prove devastating.  On the other hand Pataki with his own odd run for President has shown an eagerness to re-enter the public limelight.  Pataki however has yet to make any moves indicating he’ll run.

North Dakota – Byron Dorgan – Democratic Incumbent - If popular Republican Governor John Hoeven runs Dorgan is probably finished though it certainly will be a race.  However the running assumption is Hoeven won’t.  The question then is who else is willing to run.  Especially since Dorgan like Kent Conrad has proven resiliant in past Republican years.

Oregon – Ron Wyden – Democratic Incumbent - Has won with solid numbers in the past and hasn’t drawn any opponent of note.  The only reason I am not putting him in Solid rather than Safe is the geography of Oregon.  While the western part of it is quite moderate the eastern half is rock solid conservative and is closer culturally to states like Idaho.  In a wave Republican year the turnout model that has in the past favored Democrats could shift.  That said I wouldn’t bet on this race being competitve.

Washington – Patty Murray – Democratic Incumbent - Washington is similar to Oregon except Murray isn’t nearly as popular as Wyden.  Murray should be safe and is polling fairly well.  But a strong Republican year might place her in danger.  Of course it would help if they actually had a top notched challenger.

Wisconsin – Russ Feingold – Democratic Incumbent – In 1998 Russ Feingold tried to run a thoroughly ethical campaign.  This nearly cost him the election.  In 2004 he tossed away those self-imposed limitations and won more handily in a tougher Republican year.  However Wisconsin is a state that has shown itself to be very competitive towards Republicans in Republican years.  This along with Russ Feingold never winning with more than 55 percent of the vote makes this race worth watching.  That is if the Republicans can find a credible challenger.

Lean Democratic –

Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln – Democratic Incumbent - Blanche Lincoln is no stranger to running in a hostile Republican enviroment previously surviving the 1994 Republican tsunami and running for re-election in the unfriendly Presidential year of 2004.  That said no other Democrat besides Christopher Dodd and Harry Reid has seen uglier polling numbers. And they may yet attract higher profile better challengers into the race.  While I don’t discount Kim Hendren’s chances for the time being I am narrowly favoring the incumbent.

Illinois – Open Seat - This race probably belongs in the tossup category but due to the Democratic nature of the state I’m placing it in lean Democrat.  Roland Burris has proven himself to be a great embarassment.  Luckily unlike Carol Moseley Braun he has decided not to run to retain the seat.  Unfortunately Mark Kirk is a far stronger candidate than Peter Fitzgerald ever was.  But it is still a year out and for all we know either Mark Kirk or Alexi Giannoulias may end up being upset in their respective primaries.  However the big question still remains.  How much of a price will Democrats pay in Illinois for the corruption of Rod Blagojevich.

Nevada – Harry Reid – Democratic Incumbent - Like Arkansas I am primarily keeping it in the “Lean Democratic” category due to the quality of the Republican opponents.  Of course given Reid loses to any no name you throw against him one has to wonder whether Porter of Heller may still yet change their minds.

Harry Reid’s strength in purple Nevada has been to portray himself as a sensible moderate.  That is impossible with him being Senate Majority Leader even as he has tried to make the Democratic message as bland and non-committal as possible.  The best course of action for both the Democratic Party and for Harry Reid is for him to step down from his position and keep his focus solely on himself and his state.  Particularly with the distraction of his son running for Governor.

Last time around I called Harry Reid the most likely Democratic incumbent to lose.  That honor now goes to Christopher Dodd.  But Harry Reid is a close second.

Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter – Democratic Incumbent / Republican Turncoat - Arlen Specter after angering moderates trying to gain conservative support for his run as a Republican switched to the Democratic Party.  Far from being a homerun with voters his machiavellian changes in positions and even political parties has put him within the margin of error against his once Republican opponent Pat Toomey and in a competitive race with Congressman Joe Sestak.  Is Pat Toomey too conservative to be elected in Pennsylvania?  Harris Wofford narrowly lost to the equally conservative Rick Santorum in 1994.  Perhaps not.

Tossup -

Colorado – Michael Bennet – Democratic Incumbent Appointee - Drawing both quality Democratic and Republican Party challengers Michael Bennet has proven to be a better quality candidate than many had assumed.  However the consensus still remains that in terms of keeping the seat in Democratic hands he was a poor pick.  And his anemic polling re-affirms the horror many Democrats felt upon hearing about his appointment.

Ohio – Open Seat - As memories of Bob Taft and George W Bush fade Republican prospects improve or at least make this a competitive race.  I’m tempted to give the Democrats a slight edge but right now it’s too early to tell.

Missouri – Open Seat - The daughter of a former Governor against the father of the last Missouri Governor.  As Obama’s approval numbers have fallen Robin Carnahan has fallen into a dead heat with Roy Blunt.  Still a lot more time to go before this race takes shape.

 
Lean Republican

Connecticut – Christopher Dodd – Democratic Incumbent – No politician besides George W Bush has been hit harder by the banking financial scandal than Senate Banking Chairman Christopher Dodd.  Like Joe Lieberman he was not helped by a whimsical run for President.  While he may ultimately prevail the best interest of the party would be served by his retirement.

Delaware – Open Seat - I am making the assumption Mike Castle is in.  And as a popular virtual incumbent against the son of a Vice President of an administration that will probably only get unpopular in the next few months he has to be favored.  And the polling numbers show just that.  Beau Bidens best hope is to have Castle as rumored retire from politics.

New Hampshire – Open Seat – While voters like the idea of Kelly Ayotte the question still remains who is Kelly Ayotte and who will she turn off once she fully presents herself to voters.  For example if she comes off as too moderate she might hurt her chances of getting nominated.  And if she comes off as too conservative might she hurt the Yankee Republican appeal that is fueling her candidacy.  With the election so far away the polling numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt because voters may turn out to like the idea of Kelly Ayotte more than they do the actual Kelly Ayotte.

North Carolina – Richard Burr – Republican Incumbent - This is the “cursed” senate seat that has been won by a different party every six years for a generation.  Given the lack of enthusiasm the voters of North Carolina have towards Richard Burr there was great hope he’d join the ranks of one term senators who have held this seat.  Unfortunately the Democrats haven’t been able to recruit the candidates they have wanted and Burr has led in all polling so far for this race.

Kentucky – Open Seat - The Democrats best shot at winning this seat was in running against Senator Jim Bunning.  Which is why the Republicans all but threw him out of the race. The Republicans have a solid candidate in Trey Grayson and the Democrats have  good candidates as well(one of whom should have run against McConnell in 2008).  The Republican is favored.  Particularly if the Democrats cut each other to pieces but there is one unknown in the race.  Ron Paul’s son Rand is mounting a spirited campaign against Trey Grayson and particularly in a low turnout election could turn pull an upset.

Safe Republican

 
Arizona – John McCain – Republican Incumbent - If the right-wing could knock McCain off in a primary you’d have a very competitive race.  However despite previous threats on the right to do so there doesn’t seem to be much of a movement to purge McCain.  Demographics suggest Arizona will continue moving towards the Democratic column.  Just not this year.

Florida – Open Seat - If Charlie Crist is nominated there is only two things that will stop the Republicans from retaining this eat.  A dead girl or a live boy.  Marco Rubio on the other hand could be defeated if he upsets Charlie Crist in the Republican primary.  Just not by Kendrick Meek.

Georgia – Johnny Isakson – Republican Incumbent - There is some polling data showing Isakson as vulnerable.  But before you can challenge him you need a challenger.  Also keep in mind that the Democrats lost in 2008: a year with unusually high African-American turnout, against a weaker incumbent, and in a strong Democratic year.

Kansas – Open Seat - Sebellius is gone and all the Democratic talent that is left is eying the Governor’s seat.

 
Solid Republican

Alabama – Richard Shelby – Republican Incumbent - I assume some hapless Democrat will end up running.

Idaho – Mike Crapo – Republican Incumbent - The Democratic Party didn’t bother to officially run anyone against Crapo in 2004.  Might happen again in 2010.

Iowa – Chuck Grassley – Republican Incumbent - There is only one scenario where Chuck Grassley loses.  If he’s taken out by the rightwing of his party.  Which may explain Grassley’s shift to the right.  However that isn’t unusual for Grassley if you take a cursory look at some of the ideological ratings he’s gotten year by year.  He’s all over the place.  And that maverick streak (including a vote against the first gulf war) has made him popular in Iowa.

Oklahoma – Tom Coburn – Republican Incumbent - His entanglement in the Ensign scandal does little to change Oklahoma’s hostility towards Democrats.  Particularly given that Coburn is far more popular than Inhofe who won handily in 2008.

South Carolina – Jim DeMint – Republican Incumbent - No opponent of any note has been recruited yet.

South Dakota – John Thune – Democratic Incumbent - South Dakota has seen close epic battles in recent years. Given the Republican bent of the state, Thune’s rise in the Republican leadership, and the unlikelyhood that a big name Democrat will challenge him things will be a lot quieter this year.

Utah – Robert Bennett – Republican Incumbent - Facing a challenge within his own party Robert Bennett is in danger.  Just not from the Democrats.  If Matheson enters the race fearful of being redistricted out of his House seat this race unfortunately moves to Safe Republican at best.  The last time a sitting Democratic congressman ran for a Senate seat in Utah was 1992 where Wayne Owens managed to get 40% of the vote against the same Robert Bennett.  Which incidentally is the highest percentage vote a Democrat has managed to get for a US senate seat in over 32 years.

Final Commentary
X-Factor #1 – Barrack Obama’s approval rating.  With health care reform ont he ropes and given past historical trends the running assumption is that Obama’s approval numbers will plummet causing additional headaches for his party.  But as with Bush in 2002 domestic tragedy or international crisis could change the math.

X-Factor #2 – Recruitment.  If the Republicans can get their a-listers out in races like New York, North Dakota, Delaware, Nevada it could be a long night for Democrats.  On the other hand Democrats also still have races without serious challengers they could be at the very least competitive in.  A prime example of the power of recruitment is 2000.  An election that in partisan terms wa as near a tie as you’re going to get.  But the Democratic Party with it’s stronger array of candidates managed to win 4 Senate seats.

Prediction given current data: 3 seat Republican gain.

This might come as a surprise, but I’m not dead (yet, I guess), I’ve just been having a hard time sticking to my writing. I’m hoping to have something down on the state of the 2010 midterm elections soon (something which challenges a lot of the conventional wisdom that the Democrats are likely to lose at least 20 seats in the House). When elections are this far away, it becomes quite difficult to focus on writing about them, and my own inclination is not towards policy (which is not to say that policy is not important, it’s extremely important, just not an area I’m comfortable writing about), so I tend not to write.

With that being said, I hope to finish my post by the end of the week, and have some more data up and running about the previous House elections.

AG Bob McDonnell, the GOP’s nominee for the ‘09 Governor’s race in Virginia, is currently enjoying a modest lead in the polls; but what are Virginia voters going to make of this?

At age 34, two years before his first election and two decades before he would run for governor of Virginia, Robert F. McDonnell submitted a master’s thesis to the evangelical school he was attending in Virginia Beach in which he described working women and feminists as “detrimental” to the family. He said government policy should favor married couples over “cohabitators, homosexuals or fornicators.” He described as “illogical” a 1972 Supreme Court decision legalizing the use of contraception by unmarried couples.

The school? Pat Robertson’s Regent University, best known for producing Bush Administration hacks like Monica Goodling. Of course, McDonnell now claims his thesis “was simply an academic exercise and clearly does not reflect my views.” But WaPo notes:

During his 14 years in the General Assembly, McDonnell pursued at least 10 of the policy goals he laid out in that research paper, including abortion restrictions, covenant marriage, school vouchers and tax policies to favor his view of the traditional family. In 2001, he voted against a resolution in support of ending wage discrimination between men and women.

Virginia is a Purple State, with a term-limited Democratic governor and two Democratic senators, narrowly going for Obama after supporting GOP presidential candidates for decades. These ultraconservative associations could cost him big time in NoVA (northern Virginia), the state’s fastest growing area and most vital swing region.

History will always remember you as being one of our best Senators and as a true champion for the working class and the poor. RIP Senator.

NJ-Gov…With polls showing him down in the race, Incumbent Governor Jon Corzine (D) has little choice but to begin to tarnish former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie’s (R) name. Luckily for Corzine, Christie has been giving him plenty of ammo. Most recently, Republican Strategist Karl Rove revealed that he was more involved in the U.S. Attorney firing scandal than he previously revealed and during that time, he talked to Christie about running for Governor. The one problem with that, is that U.S. Attorney’s aren’t supposed to take place in partisan political activites and one may now question how objective Christie was. There are already lawsuits and accusations about pay for play justice.

HI- Gov…Congressmen Neil Abercrombie (D) will be unable to use more than 900,000 dollars in his federal campaign treasury for the race so sayeth Hawaii’s state campaign spending commission. This set Abercrombie behind other candidates in terms of fundraising. Abercrombie should however, be able to close that gap rather quickly with his contacts and state star power without too much effort.

NV-Sen…with congressmen Dean Heller (R) staying out of the race, Nevada Republicans lack a big name to take on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Reid’s massive warchest may deter any real competetior from getting into the race.

NY-23…Dede Scozzafava has temporarily suspended her campaign due to a family illness. While this shouldn’t have a major impact on the race, this can’t be seen as a good thing for Republican chances to keep this seat.

PA-Sen…In a laughable poll released by Rasmussen, Former Congressmen Pat Toomey (R) takes the lead over Senator Arlen Specter (D) 48-36. Toomey also leads Congressmen Joe Sestak (D) 43-35.

CA-10…Lt. Governor John Garamendi (D) has the early lead in the race to replace Ellen Tauscher (D) in Congress. Garamendi lead in the poll with 26% followed by Republican David Harmer with 18. Mark Desaulnier and Joan Buchanon came in third and fourth with 15 and 12 respectively. Netroots favorite Anthony Woods places fifth with 9% of the vote.

Ladies and gentlemen, I present the Master List for House fundraising for all 435 House races in 2008 presented without any analysis (I’ll post an analysis of the data a bit later).

In addition to having all House races here, I also took the liberty of dividing races into different classifications, including races that were contested by the losing Party, ones where the losing Party spent money, and the ones where the losing candidate spent at least $100,000. The formatting should be self explanatory, but if you have any questions feel free to ask in the comments section. Oh and before I forget, all these numbers were compiled from Open Secrets (major kudos to the operators!)

Right now I’m working on formating and uploading issues, but I hope to have a complete set of fundraising data from the 2008 election cycle for all House and Senate races up. This data will not only contain a chart for all House and Senate fundraising by race but will also contain different permutations of fundraising based on incumbency, on whether or not the losing candidate raised any money at all, and eventually (though probably not for a while) all the PVIs of each House district and State. More to come soon…

(UPDATE) Ok, this might take a lot longer than I was hoping, unfortunately I’m having trouble finding a place to upload the data to for online viewing. If I can’t get this solved, I’ll just do a quick write up and then post the data a bit later.

Safe Democratic (3)

• Lynch (New Hampshire)
• Beebe (Arkansas)
• O’Malley (Maryland)

Democratic Potential Dark-Horse (2)

• Quinn (Illinois)
• Patrick (Massachusetts)

Likely Democratic (1)

• Open New Mexico (Richardson)

Leans Democratic (7)

• Ritter (Colorado)
• Open Maine (Baldacci)
• Open Oregon (Kulongoski)
• Culver (Iowa)
• Strickland (Ohio)
• Doyle (Wisconsin)
• Open Hawaii (Lingle)

Toss-up (11)

• Open Virginia (Kaine) (2009 race)
• Open Michigan (Granholm)
• Freudenthal (Wyoming)*
• Paterson (New York)
• Open Pennsylvania (Rendell)
• Open Rhode Island (Carcieri)
• Open Florida (Crist)
• Open California (Schwarzenegger)
• Open Minnesota (Pawlenty)
• Brewer (Arizona)
• Gibbons (Nevada)

Leans Republican (4)

• Corzine (New Jersey) (2009)
• Open Tennessee (Bredesen)
• Open Oklahoma (Henry)
• Open Georgia (Perdue)

Likely Republican (4)

• Open Kansas (Parkinson)
• Open Alabama (Riley)
• Open South Carolina (Sanford)
• Open South Dakota (Rounds)

Republican Potential Dark-horse (4)

• Rell (Connecticut)
• Douglas (Vermont)
• Perry (Texas)
• Parnell (Alaska)

Safe Republican (3)

• Otter (Idaho)
• Heineman (Nebraska)
• Herbert (Utah)

(7/16/2009) Governor race rankings created

Well, after my extremely long absence, I’m going to try to get some more posts done, and I’ve got a few things I’m trying to work on getting posted. So here’s an updated look at the Senate Race Rankings and I’ll also post my rankings for Governors in 2010 in a bit.

Solid Democratic (6)

Democratic Potential Dark-Horse (9)

Likely Democratic (0)

N/A

Leans Democratic (3)

• Bennett (Colorado)
• Specter (Pennsylvania)
• Dodd (Connecticut)

Toss-ups (4)

• Open Missouri (Bond)
• Open Ohio (Voinovich)
• Bunning (Kentucky)
• Open New Hampshire (Gregg)

Leans Republican (3)

• Burr (North Carolina)
• Open Florida (Martinez)
• Vitter (Louisiana)

Likely Republican

N/A

Republican Potential Dark-Horse (4)

• Grassley (Iowa)
• Isakson (Georgia)
• Open Kansas (Brownback)
• Oklahoma (Coburn)

Safe Republican (7)

• DeMint (South Carolina)
• McCain (Arizona)
• Shelby (Alabama)
• Bennett (Utah)
• Crapo (Idaho)
• Murkowski (Alaska)
• Thune (South Dakota)

Senate rankings page posted 2/03/2009: Reflects Judd Gregg moving towards the cabinet and Bonnie Newman being named his replacement, but does not see the New Hampshire seat as being open until Newman states intention not to run for election.

Senate Rankings update 2/12/2009: Reflects Judd Gregg’s decision to withdraw his name from consideration and not running for re-election and includes putting SD-Sen in the Solid Republican category (this wasn’t added originally, but SD-Sen I see as being safe for the time being).

Senate Rankings update 7/15/2009: Changed PA-Sen to Leans Democratic from Leans Republican (finally), moved LA-Sen to Leans Republican from Republican Potential Darkhorse, moved CT-Sen from Democratic Potential Darkhorse to Leans Democratic, moved KS-Sen from Leans Republican to Republican Potential Darkhorse, moved OK-Sen to Republican Potential Darkhorse from Safe Republican,

I happen to be reading around on the blog when I find a response written by Ta-Nehisi Coates to Matt Yglesias’s response to an article written by Pat Buchanan concerning whether or not the best bet for the Republican Party is to give up any pretext of doing well among the non-white vote. Here’s the basic point behind Buchanan’s argument:

In 2008, Hispanics, according to the latest figures, were 7.4 percent of the total vote. White folks were 74 percent, 10 times as large. Adding just 1 percent to the white vote is thus the same as adding 10 percent to the candidate’s Hispanic vote.

If John McCain, instead of getting 55 percent of the white vote, got the 58 percent George W. Bush got in 2004, that would have had the same impact as lifting his share of the Hispanic vote from 32 percent to 62 percent.

But even Ronald Reagan never got over 44 percent of the Hispanic vote. Yet, he and Richard Nixon both got around 65 percent of the white vote.

When Republican identification is down to 20 percent, but 40 percent of Americans identify themselves as conservatives, do Republicans need a GPS to tell them which way to go?

Why did McCain fail to win the white conservative Democrats Hillary Clinton swept in the primaries? He never addressed or cared about their issues.

These are the folks whose jobs have been outsourced to China and Asia, who pay the price of affirmative action when their sons and daughters are pushed aside to make room for the Sonia Sotomayors. These are the folks who want the borders secured and the illegals sent back.

Had McCain been willing to drape Jeremiah Wright around the neck of Barack Obama, as Lee Atwater draped Willie Horton around the neck of Michael Dukakis, the mainstream media might have howled.

And McCain might be president.

Basically, Buchanan is arguing that the Republicans are engaging in a vain effort to make nice with Latinos (and Blacks, for that matter) when they should be playing hardball on these types of issues (particuarly concerning Judge Sotomayor, President Obama’s pick to the Supreme Court).

Matt Yglesias seems to agree with Buchanan’s reasoning (even if he thinks the reasoning is scuzzy):

At any rate, while Buchanan is being repugnant, I do think this is something conservatives are going to want to think about. Consider the case of Jeff Sessions (R-AL). We’re talking about a guy who’s too racist to get confirmed as a judge, but just racist enough to win a Senate seat in Alabama. And it’s not because Alabama is a lilly white state. With 65 percent of its electorate white, and 29 percent of its electorate African-American, Alabama is much more demographically favorable to the Democrats than is the country at large. But while McCain pulled 55 percent of the white vote nationwide he scored 88 percent of white vote in Alabama. And this is what you tend to see in the Deep South, white Americans exhibiting the kind of high levels of racial solidarity in voting behavior that you normally associate with African-Americans in the US political context.

Consequently states with small white populations like Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi can be solid GOP territory. Under the circumstances, it’s not entirely crazy for Republicans to believe that the right way to respond to shifting American demographics is by just trying to amp-up the level of racial anxiety in the shrinking white majority. An analogy might be to religion. When the country was overwhelmingly Christian, Christianity didn’t play much of a role in our politics. But as the Christian majority shrank it became more and more viable to explicitly mobilize Christian identity for political purposes.

Yglesias seems to buy into Buchanan’s argument, that it might be a politically smart move to attempt to shore up the white vote against the non-white vote (basically Blacks, Latinos, Asians, Indians, etc.). I disagree with Yglesias’s reasoning for a few reasons. Ta-Nehisi Coates pretty much sums up part of my disagreement with Yglesias:

The second problem is that it likely turns a significant portion of white people also. The GOP’s problem isn’t that it needs to shore up Alabama–at least not yet. It’s problem is, well, basically everywhere else that isn’t Alabama. I don’t know how bashing Sotomayor makes you more competitive in, say, Colorado or Oregon. I’d assume the opposite.

Coates points out that the White vote, like the Latino vote, is simply not a homogenous group in the same way the Black vote is (although the GOP’s racist rhetoric regarding Latinos could turn the Latino vote into a more strongly Democratic vote than it is now). Though I do think that there are states where this could possibly pay dividends for the GOP outside of the Deep South, there are also plenty of states where this sort of tactic won’t work, and in some cases can backfire. Think about this for a second, take away the states of North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, and Pennsylvania from Obama and give them to McCain (67 electoral votes), Obama would win the electoral college with nearly 300 electoral votes (298 votes, 297 if you take away NE-02 from Obama’s column). That’s assuming that you’d make net gains among the White vote in those states, when there is plenty of reason to think otherwise. Looking at Ohio, the quintessential bastion of the White Working Class that Pat Buchanan is so obsessed with, Obama won the state by only marginally improving among the less educated group and improving greatly among the more educated compared to Kerry’s performance in 2004. Something which Buchanan and his ilk have failed to understand is that one of the reasons that the GOP has been collapsing has little to do with their strength among blue-collar Whites, rather it’s been because the Republicans have been doing worse and worse with better educated White voters and with minorities in general, and one thing that these two groups have in common is that they’re more likely to turn on groups who use the type of polarized voting that Buchanan advocates.

The second problem with Buchanan’s (and Yglesias’s) logic is that even if this strategy would help them out in the short term (a view which I strongly disagree with) in the long term, it would probably spell the end of the Republican Party. Think about this for a moment, Barack Obama only lost the state of Georgia by 5 points, compared to John Kerry’s embarrasing 18 point loss to George Bush, yet Obama did this despite doing as well with white voters as John Kerry did. This is the main problem with the Republican gambit, many states which form the core of the Republican Party’s base in the electoral college (Texas, Georgia, Mississippi, and Arizona) have populations which are becoming more and more non-white (Texas, Georgia, and Mississippi will probably be majority-minority states in the next decade or two). If McCain had lost the four states which I mentioned before (without taking back any of the other states I mentioned before) then he would’ve only had 108 electoral votes. The Republican Party may very well succumb to the demographic tide which is moving against it, but Buchanan’s advice would speed up the schedule very quickly.

Oh, and I’m sorry for the ridiculously long time since my last post, I haven’t really had much to say about things since the end of the election season and so I haven’t written, I hope to get back to making at least semi-regular posts from now on.

(Cross-posted at Swing State Project)