North Carolina

Obama v. McCain Designation
Slight Dem

North Carolina General Election Matchups:

Poll Obama McCain Margin
Rasmussen 9/30 50 47 D+3
PPP (D) 9/28-9/29 47 45 D+2
ARG 9/27-9/29 46 49 R+3
Rasmussen 9/23 49 47 D+2
Civitas (R) 9/17-9/20 45 45 Tie
PPP (D) 9/17-9/19 46 46 Tie
Rasmussen 9/18 47 50 R+3
SUSA 8/9-8/11 45 49 R+4
Research 2000 7/28-7/30 43 47 R+4
PPP (D) 7/23-7/27 44 47 R+3
Civitas (R) 7/14-7/16 40 43 R+3
Rasmussen 7/15 45 48 R+3
SUSA 7/12-7/14 45 50 R+5
Zogby Internet 6/11-6/30 47 38 D+9
PPP (D) 6/26-6/29 41 45 R+4
Civitas (R) 6/11-6/13 41 45 R+4
Rasmussen 6/10 43 45 R+2
PPP (D) 5/28-5/29 40 43 R+3
SUSA 5/17-5/19 43 51 R+8
PPP (D) 5/8-5/9 42 49 R+7
Rasmussen 5/8 45 48 R+3
Rasmussen 4/10 47 47 Tie
Civitas (R) 4/9-4/10 39 48 R+9
Rasmussen 3/20 42 51 R+9
SUSA 2/26-2/28 45 47 R+2

North Carolina Senate polls:

Poll Democrat % Republican %
SUSA 8/9-8/11 Kay Hagan 41 Elizabeth Dole (i) 46
Research 2000 7/28-7/30 Kay Hagan 42 Elizabeth Dole (i) 50
PPP (D) 7/23-7/27 Kay Hagan 40 Elizabeth Dole (i) 49
Civitas (R) 7/14-7/16 Kay Hagan 38 Elizabeth Dole (i) 47
Rasmussen 7/15 Kay Hagan 43 Elizabeth Dole (i) 54
SUSA 7/12-7/14 Kay Hagan 42 Elizabeth Dole (i) 54
Tarrance Group (R) 7/7-7/9 Kay Hagan 36 Elizabeth Dole (i) 51
PPP (D) 6/26-6/29 Kay Hagan 37 Elizabeth Dole (i) 51
Civitas (R) 6/11-6/13 Kay Hagan 38 Elizabeth Dole (i) 48
Rasmussen 6/10 Kay Hagan 39 Elizabeth Dole (i) 53
PPP (D) 5/28-5/29 Kay Hagan 39 Elizabeth Dole (i) 47
Anzalone Liszt (D) 5/14-5/21 Kay Hagan 44 Elizabeth Dole (i) 48
SUSA 5/17-5/19 Kay Hagan 46 Elizabeth Dole (i) 50
Civitas (R) 5/14-5/17 Kay Hagan 43 Elizabeth Dole (i) 45
PPP (D) 5/8-5/9 Kay Hagan 43 Elizabeth Dole (i) 48
Rasmussen 5/8 Kay Hagan 48 Elizabeth Dole (i) 47
Research 2000 4/28-4/30 Kay Hagan 41 Elizabeth Dole (i) 48
Rasmussen 4/10 Kay Hagan 39 Elizabeth Dole (i) 52
PPP (D) 1/21 Kay Hagan 35 Elizabeth Dole (i) 48
Rasmussen 12/19 Kay Hagan 35 Elizabeth Dole (i) 55

North Carolina House Polls:

District Incumbent Poll Dem Candidate % Rep Candidate %
NC-08 Robin Hayes (R) PPP (D) 7/2-7/5 Larry Kissell 36 Robin Hayes 43
NC-08 Robin Hayes (R) Anzalone Liszt (D) 6/8-6/14 Larry Kissell 45 Robin Hayes 43
NC-08 Robin Hayes (R) Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) 11/13-11/15 Larry Kissell 49 Robin Hayes 47
NC-10 Patrick McHenry (R) PPP (D) 6/21-6/22 Daniel Johnson 38 Patrick McHenry 49

North Carolina Governor polls:

Poll Date Democrat % Republican %
SUSA 8/9-8/11 Bev Perdue 47 Pat McCrory 44
PPP (D) 7/23-7/27 Bev Perdue 46 Pat McCrory 37
Civitas (R) 7/14-7/16 Bev Perdue 43 Pat McCrory 40
SUSA 7/12-7/14 Bev Perdue 47 Pat McCrory 46
PPP (D) 6/26-6/29 Bev Perdue 42 Pat McCrory 41
Rasmussen 6/10 Bev Perdue 47 Pat McCrory 46
PPP (D) 5/28-5/29 Bev Perdue 43 Pat McCrory 39
SUSA 5/17-5/19 Bev Perdue 52 Pat McCrory 45
PPP (D) 5/8-5/9 Bev Perdue 45 Pat McCrory 45
Rasmussen 5/8 Bev Perdue 39 Pat McCrory 45
Rasmussen 3/20 Bev Perdue 45 Pat McCrory 42
PPP(D) 1/21 Bev Perdue 41 Pat McCrory 39

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary 5/6
134 Delegates at stake: 115 pledged, 19 superdelegates
Final Result:

Candidate % Delegates Superdelegates Total delegates
Obama 56.2 65 11 76
Clinton 41.5 50 3 53

Final North Carolina primary polls:

Pollster Date Obama Clinton
InsiderAdvantage 5/5 47 43
Zogby 5/4-5/5 51 37
SUSA 5/2-5/4 50 45
ARG 5/2-5/4 50 42
PPP 5/3-5/4 53 43
InsiderAdvantage 5/4 48 45
Zogby 5/3-5/4 48 40
Zogby 5/2-5/3 48 39
Zogby 5/1-5/2 46 37
InsiderAdvantage 5/1 47 40
Rasmussen 5/1 49 40
ARG 4/30-5/1 52 41
Zogby 4/30-5/1 50 34
Research 2000 4/29-4/30 51 44
Mason-Dixon 4/28-4/29 49 42
InisderAdvantage 4/29 42 44

10 Comments »

  2. Some general thoughts on Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Indiana « Election Inspection said,

    April 12, 2008 at 1:48 pm

    [...] that Obama is well positioned to win the state by over 20 points. Right now, Election Inspection predicts that the CD level split will be Obama 44 Clinton 35. Now, even I believe that Obama has the ability [...]

  3. tom said,

    April 17, 2008 at 4:50 pm

    Good analysis. But I think NCs CD 3 only has 4 delegates.

  4. Elliot said,

    April 17, 2008 at 5:02 pm

    D’oh, you’re right, that should be Obama 2 and Clinton 2. I’ll correct that right away. Thanks.

  5. Detailed Delegate Projection: North Carolina « Election Inspection said,

    April 18, 2008 at 8:41 pm

    [...] already projected that Obama will get 45 pledged delegates and Clinton will get 32 at the CD level, so [...]

  6. Kathy Giannini said,

    April 27, 2008 at 12:41 pm

    There is a growing trend among African American women to identify more and more with the under-represented MAJORITY of WOMEN. I predict that North Carolina will be the first primary where this trend shows up significantly. I notice that — aside from the ppp polling (please note the huge discrepancy between their polling tand the real results in the Pennsylvania primary)– there is the beginning of a rising trend for Clinton. Unless there is another incident which skews the vote at the last minute, I predict she’ll do what Obama did in PA : “catch up” on her opponent’s initially sizable lead and whittle is down to single figures (because Clinton did win by single figures in PA.

  7. Elliot said,

    April 27, 2008 at 1:18 pm

    Uh huh… take a look at the exit polls, Clinton won only 12% of African American women (which is about the same as has been happening, they vote slightly more for Clinton than African American men, which is still pathetically low).

    Sorry to burst your bubble, but Clinton has made no inroads with any of Obama’s strongest groups, that will become obvious when North Carolina votes.

  8. Behrooz said,

    May 5, 2008 at 7:00 pm

    I think Obama beat Clinton and break her campain in NC.
    GO Obama!
    Who’s Obama? Come from hearts!!


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