Senate Race Rankings

Solid Democratic (Pick-up) (1)

  • Virginia (Warner)

Solid Democratic (Retention)(10)

  • Kerry (Massachusetts)
  • Durbin (Illinois)
  • Baucus (Montana)
  • Johnson (South Dakota)
  • Levin (Michigan)
  • Harkin (Iowa)
  • Biden (Delaware)
  • Reed (Rhode Island)
  • Pryor (Arkansas) *No challenger
  • Rockefeller (West Virginia)

Likely Democratic (Pick-up) (1)

  • New Mexico (Domenici)

Possible Darkhorse races (Democratic Incumbent) (2)

  • Lautenberg (New Jersey)
  • Landrieu (Lousiana)

Leans Democratic (5)

  • Sununu (New Hampshire)
  • Colorado (Allard)
  • Dole (North Carolina)
  • Smith (Oregon)
  • Stevens (Alaska)

Toss-up (2)

  • Coleman (Minnesota)
  • Chambliss (Georgia)*

Leans Republican (2)

  • McConnell (Kentucky)
  • Wicker (Mississippi-B)

Likely Republican (Open Seat retention) (1)

  • Idaho (Craig)

Possible Darkhorse Races (Republican Incumbent) (2)

  • Collins (Maine)
  • Graham (South Carolina)

Solid Republican (Retention) (9)

  • Enzi (Wyoming-A)
  • Barrasso (Wyoming-B)
  • Sessions (Alabama)
  • Cochran (Mississippi-A)
  • Alexander (Tennessee)
  • Nebraska (Hagel)
  • Cornyn (Texas)
  • Inhofe (Oklahoma)
  • Roberts (Kansas)

Projected Make-up of 111th Senate: 56 Democrats, 40 Republicans, 2 Independents (at least 1 caucusing with the Democrats) and 2 true toss-ups

*Election Inspection predicts that Georgia’s senate race will go into a run-off.

Notes

Moved KY-Sen from Darkhorse to Leans Republican. 6/17/2008
Moved CO-Sen from Toss-up to Leans Democratic 6/19/2008
Moved NE-Sen from Likely Republican to Solid Republican 6/25/2008
Moved MN-Sen from Toss-up to Leans Republican: 7/20/2008
Added Senate prediction: 7/20/2008
Moved AK-Sen from Toss-up to Leans Democratic: 7/30/2008
Updated Senate Prediction 7/30/2008
Moved NC-Sen from Darkhorse to Leans Republican, moved NM-Sen from Solid Democratic to Likely Democratic 8/24/2008
Moved NC-Sen from Leans Republican to Toss-up 9/17/2008
Moved OR-Sen from Leans Republican to Toss-up 9/19/2008
Moved NJ-Sen from Solid Democratic to Potential Dark-Horse 9/20/2008
Moved LA-Sen from Leans Democratic to Potential Dark-Horse 9/29/2008
Moved GA-Sen from Solid Republican to Potential Dark-Horse, Moved ME-Sen from Leans Republican to Potential Dark-Horse 9/30/2008
Moved GA-Sen from Potential Dark-Horse to Leans Republican (10/6/2008)
Moved MN-Sen from Leans Republican to Toss-up, Moved SC-Sen from Solid Republican to Potential Dark-Horse 10/8/2008
Moved TX-Sen, OK-Sen, KS-Sen from Possible Dark-Horse to Solid Republican; moved AK-Sen from Leans Dem to Toss-up; moved OR-Sen and NC-Sen from Toss-up to Leans Dem; Moved MS-Sen from Leans Rep to Toss-up 10/25/2008
Moved AK-Sen from Toss-up to Leans Democratic (10/27/2008)
Moved GA-Sen from Leans Republican to Toss-up, moved MS-Sen (B) from Toss-up to Leans Republican (11/3/2008)

3 Comments »

  1. Bob Dole said,

    November 3, 2008 at 4:22 pm

    Not that it really matters, but I thought that it was strange that you have some of them listed as “State (Name of Incumbant)” while all the rest are labeled “Name of Incumbant (State)”

  2. Elliot said,

    November 3, 2008 at 4:51 pm

    The former are Open Seats, the latter are incumbents running for re-election, there is a method to the madness here.

  3. Senate Projections: Who’s going to win what (Sorry for the lateness) « Election Inspection said,

    November 4, 2008 at 10:56 am

    [...] of right now, Election Inspection shows 9 seats which are leaning or toss-up (plus the two open seats in New Mexico and Virginia which are [...]


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