EI Electoral College Projection
This is the third version of Election Inspection’s electoral college projection:
Map One: The Battlegrounds (All states in grey are either toss-up or leaning towards one of the candidates)
Changes from previous version: Move Georgia from McCain state to Battleground (McCain -15, Battleground +15)
Notes on Map: Moving Georgia to the battleground is something which seems controversial, but if you read Nate Silver’s excellent article on voter registration in the state, you’ll see why I’ve given Georgia battleground status.
Map Two: the Toss-ups (all states in grey should be considered true toss-ups)
Changes from previous version: Move Missouri from Leans McCain to Toss-up (McCain -11, toss-up +11), move Virginia and New Hampshire from Toss-up to Leans Obama (Obama +17, toss-up -17)
Notes on Map: My reason for moving Virginia from toss-up to Leans Democratic is based on the fact that three of the four most recent polls of Virginia have Obama leading in the state by at least 8 points. Even though I still feel that New Hampshire is a screwy state that is difficult to poll, the fact is that the polling as of late has given Obama pretty sizeable margins, so it’s difficult to say that the state is anything but Leaning Obama.
Map Three: Projected Outcome (Obama wins popular vote by 5 points)
Changes from previous version: Move Florida and Indiana from McCain to Obama (Obama +38, McCain -38)
Notes on Map: For those who remember my hypothetical 5-point Obama win, this probably looks familiar, the only real difference between this map and the previous one is my giving McCain Missouri instead of Obama.